Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes probability

71.0%

24h change

+2.50%

Total volume

$105,973

Liquidity

$1,266

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes71.0%

No29.0%

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Dec 11, 2025, 10:27 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$512

1 week volume

$975

1 month volume

$2,054

1 year volume

$106,004

Spread

4.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

95.8%

1h change

-3.00%

1 week change

+16.50%

1 month change

+35.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0xacff734fd12b552ebab5edb2220cf23c19bda7728b3673a44b0c515a2c60c3d5
Question ID:: 0xa92a811c7c6c16f777a36a01ec7cc90d11c2fce29b5f3a046fe04052d0722a00

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 71.0%, No at 29.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$105,973 in total volume, with $512 in the last 24 hours and $1,266 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Dec 12, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.