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Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Active · Ends Nov 3, 2026

No probability

58.5%

24h change

+1.00%

Total volume

$1.9M

Liquidity

$294,601

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1841.5%58.5%

Outcomes

Yes41.5%
No58.5%

Order book

Yes · 81 levels
BidsSize
  1. 41¢15,217
  2. 40¢29,131
  3. 39¢4,812
  4. 38¢1,117
  5. 37¢1,432
  6. 36¢215
  7. 35¢4,605
  8. 34¢193
AsksSize
  1. 42¢34,875
  2. 43¢19,096
  3. 44¢16,552
  4. 45¢11,260
  5. 46¢9,663
  6. 47¢18,125
  7. 48¢26,434
  8. 49¢18,820

  • Norco6611h ago

    Can some of you maga morons buy gop stocks? Im tryna but at a better price

    0

  • hdtomo21h ago

    No party, let alone incumbant, has reversed a +9 (or, holistically, +13) generic ballot poll in US history, precedent if anything argues that it will only exacerbate. Odds are closer to 80-85% and the house is essentially 99% bar a deeply exogenous event. America's anti-Trump stance on Iran indicates that the most common cause for such a rare reversal is also acting against him.

    2

  • HDTomo-2292d ago

    I take a 3 hour nap and suddenly the Democrats are starting to be priced correctly wtf happened

    3

  • flybat2d ago

    holy shit. bottoms falling out. oil skyrocketing, Iran is a disaster, Canada and Europe are signing deals and making us look dumb. GOP got nothing but racist tropes and conspiracies. it's fucking over.

    9

  • ItsRigg3d1d ago

    The left is collapsing in Europe. Delulu hopium is high with you people.

    0

  • flybat16h ago

    You’re on a sinking ship with a pedophile captain.

    2

  • ItsRigg3d15h ago

    We'll see about that, ch il d mu rd er er

    0

  • 0x958b553e802bb96761046A853BD7646dF3f4a2fe-176319968788315h ago

    The left just kicked out the incumbent right-wing coalition in Sweden this past Sunday, with Sweden's version of MAGA falling to third place.

    0

  • ItsRigg3d15h ago

    Sweden is the most lunatic communist country in Europe, I'm talking about serious nations.

    0

  • 0x958b553e802bb96761046A853BD7646dF3f4a2fe-17631996878835h ago

    Let me guess. The threshold for meeting the label of "serious nations" is whether you like the results.

    0

  • hdtomo3d ago

    GTA 6, 56 Dems in the Senate, Avengers Doomsday

    5

  • sibuscus6d ago

    Unfortunately democrats

    1

  • hdtomo3d ago

    Said nobody ever

    5

  • Nana65hi9d ago

    Soon

    4

  • Norco661d ago

    😂😂😂 I would sell if i were you

    2

  • huobi505417d ago

    democrats pleeease

    9

  • 0x42ac8575C599C7eaa2bE37db17A8038ECa79cE8B-177921325715117d ago

    Just a reminder Democrats have no policies and will 100% return America to the Biden era inflation / open borders / increased crime all while telling you that you're supposed to be happy you're being replaced by millions of foreigners. Clowns all of you. "B-b-but Trump bad, Iran war... 🥺" You guys look ret4rded. Trump already proved he can get gas below $3 in 40 states and once the war ceases it'll go back down but you guys would rather we flood our borders again and grant mass amnesty to people who don't follow our entry laws.

    6

  • KEFE16d ago

    my man has zero dollars riding on this, but for whatever reason still seems to be invested into this bet...

    9

  • hdtomo16d ago

    Biden can handle a major global financial event without recession and he's got dementia, but Trump can lose a war, double the deficit while somehow hurting the economy, reduce government efficiency, perform hundreds of insider trades, on top of being a total dick and eroding democracy and it's just "b-b-but Trump bad!"

    9

  • darkwight9d ago

    This comment might make sense to someone who actually believes brown people are the true source of your economic issues…. Billionaires paid a lot of money to get you to believe that nonsense. They’re very satisfied that their investment is going so well.

    3

  • flybat2d ago

    this is aging really well.

    3

  • NoiseC2d ago

    Gas below $3!

    1

  • hdtomo26d ago

    This fuckery about keeping it close for the Republicans because some whales can't wrap their heads around the Democrats winning needs to stop. It happened to Texas for 8 months too.

    5

  • valetecaolho25d ago

    That is the beauty of markets I suppose. Whales will only be whales if they continue to make money. If, in this specific case they happen to be taking the wrong side of the bet....

    1

  • 0x24d6e74fA73eA49E0A9E7fcAA6A56FD4188B6e3c-176000246083027d ago

    Democrats

    5

  • Magician53421mo ago

    Hw

    1

  • GiaPet171mo ago

    I think their odds are correct...I had the cross happening 3rd week of September...Vote Democrats.

    7

  • 0x42ac8575C599C7eaa2bE37db17A8038ECa79cE8B-177921325715117d ago

    Are you mentally challenged? Democrats are the worst thing to ever happen to America. You're all gender confused, anti-law, anti-border, anti-america, communist, and radical. Never vote again 🤡 you have no reason to convince anyone to vote Democrat because Democrats couldn't even keep the border secure under Biden. You're a joke

    1

  • 0xC9DB841A167197796503AB6303f49105BD1CAbF7-17793252951048d ago

    That's all you Maga morons worry about. The color of people's skin and what someone's private parts look like. Maga is done in November. I wonder if you'll still protect pedophiles then?

    2

  • 0x8C0d449a67DD6b5D8f5D687929D7141854B3d87A-17742732609281d ago

    The only confused people are the insecure closeted gay men in the Republican Party. The only one braking the law is the current administration and its idiotic voters storming the capitol. Not a single democratic voter that I know supports unregulated borders and neither do any of the politicians (Biden deported over 270k in his last year in office btw). The most American thing is to support peoples freedom which is currently being suppressed. Not a single Democratic politician is a communist and only a small handful are democratic socialists that are not even remotely communist. The only voters that are radical are those threatening other Americans with violence. Never vote agin.🤡

    0

  • 0xb63dfbD40F3C32289DE697f269de7D45D89d3F33-17641856549541mo ago

    Not if they exposed as dr fauci's psychopaths.

    2

  • 0x8e8A223f81908A76E4c2fa0144F3268D4fA5a37e-17788449656941mo ago

    moron, keep talking and show people ehu they need to vote you idiots to the curb

    11

  • mcpetrus1mo ago

    Why did this swing from 55–45 for the Republicans to 53–47 for the Democrats within a single day?

    0

  • aleksandmoney1mo ago

    manipulate

    1

  • MartonMagyar1mo ago

    i mean a socialist candidate with 96% chance to win just lost in WI so it doesnt seem like a big deal r

    0

  • nichcagefan1mo ago

    Texas, Michigan, and Alaska are all trending lean dem from coin flip in the last few days

    2

  • snoopy23221mo ago

    At around 8am a federal judge issued a national wide rulling on a suit brought by the women's league in Massachusetts against parts of trumps election integrity order, specifically a part of the order that directs the postmaster to withhold mail in ballots from states that dont turn over voter rolls. The trump administration asked the Supreme Court to take up the case and markets reacted accordingly.

    0

  • flybat1mo ago

    Nate Silver forecast came out

    1

  • 67Shadow1mo ago

    This is the real answer.

    0

  • dPredictor1mo ago

    look at this headline "Federal Court Blocks U.S. Postal Service from Implementing Executive Order Restricting Mail Voting" Trump's Attempt to block mail-in votes failed and the marked moved acordingly (Republicans are more likely to be old retired folks who don't work for a living and can go vote in person)

    0

  • dPredictor1mo ago

    because

    0

  • dPredictor1mo ago

    headline 'Federal Court Blocks U.S. Postal Service from Implementing Executive Order Restricting Mail Voting'

    0

  • 0xfF2c1a68C122f721B7A632d85c5EeA40534362f0-178039435083722d ago

    Nate silver model prediction showing dems with a 57% of winning moved the markets since he is given credit for being a knowledgeable stats based modeler.

    0

  • aleksandmoney1mo ago

    Hi

    1

  • 0x61d40726d2b4c13f7F77E8D7F91ca9747974d00E-17789670106031mo ago

    Betting on Republicans, so if I lose, I'm still happy

    21

  • 0xAa4Ba374cDCd7CB79f5C5BA8cbCf7910eBeeBa09-17209865354481mo ago

    Planning on doing the same lol

    0

  • aleksandmoney1mo ago

    Republicans😎

    0

  • hyper-liquid-xyz1mo ago

    Iran is allegedly doing cyberattack in US water facilities. Trump denies that they are running out of munitions but more and more US military are telling him this - Hormuz Letter, X.

    0

  • hyper-liquid-xyz1mo ago

    US surrender to Iran state in 3, 2, 1...

    0

  • timebrotime1mo ago

    REP Forever😍

    2

Rules

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jul 11, 2025, 7:22 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$32,589

1 week volume

$111,853

1 month volume

$248,985

1 year volume

$1.8M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

99.3%

1h change

—

1 week change

-7.00%

1 month change

-8.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x86bfb53af7250a40928975c551d12c185b762fa4ce0b40c6a64a50c946d72587
Question ID:
0x22725f09e6a3f61882a1fd2ab4d044dc609767099b539b47053d9d71b5ae6a01

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 41.5%, No at 58.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.9M in total volume, with $32,589 in the last 24 hours and $294,601 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 3, 2026. The market opened on Jul 11, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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