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Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

No probability

71.5%

24h change

-3.00%

Total volume

$6.2M

Liquidity

$3.4M

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 24Oct 28Oct 3128.5%71.5%

Outcomes

Yes28.5%
No71.5%

Order book

Yes · 83 levels
BidsSize
  1. 28¢36,173
  2. 27¢639,996
  3. 26¢693,816
  4. 25¢2,553
  5. 24¢4,115
  6. 23¢56
  7. 22¢20
  8. 21¢200
AsksSize
  1. 29¢12,965
  2. 30¢473,375
  3. 31¢94,849
  4. 32¢2,121,409
  5. 33¢531,918
  6. 34¢521,110
  7. 35¢7,000
  8. 36¢10,705

  • BasedJonStewart12m ago

    Betting on this market is the only way you will see your $5k checks MAGATs

    0

  • BasedJonStewart19m ago

    Permission to lib the fuck out

    0

  • FSD193h ago

    Polymarket has recently suffered several high-profile "whiffs" where heavily favored outcomes were completely overturned by reality. This market will be another added to the list below. The Brazil Presidential Race - it surged to over 80% The Los Angeles Mayoral Primary: it 75% The Wisconsin Gubernatorial/Democratic Primary: it's 95%

    16

  • speckwiley2h ago

    All of those whiffs underestimated liberal candidates

    8

  • CryptoBankrupt4h ago

    bye, Mr. Impeachment

    6

  • OATH19895h ago

    freemoney. only madman maga think trump party can win

    9

  • Moneymaxerr4h ago

    Bro genuinely these are just bots.

    2

  • Angello34006h ago

    Democratic Party easy win

    1

  • itter7h ago

    So obvious...

    1

  • HopefulFx18h ago

    The steal is happening! Demon crats can't win without cheating. But The best president ever will keep us in our great golden age and win this in a landslide like he always does. MAGA!

    12

  • 0x95AE77910987Cf138D6D64D0dFd8B278Dd473083-175942914022317h ago

    sybau magat

    12

  • vaarilla0saarta11h ago

    Who else is talking about stealing than one 80y old man?

    3

  • Gardox-11h ago

    STFU - How can Republicans still be so popular? After Trump orchestrated that massacre... New wars, inflation, pro-Russian policies... the Epstein Files and extreme corruption... and yet the Republicans still have so many votes, Americans really aren't the brightest - but still bright enough that DEM's will win.

    4

  • cranberries27h ago

    Kindergartner's logic

    0

  • 0x74371A13a9E6B779fB4459Ee6908fDb36707965F-17745472129052h ago

    Your bot handlers are pathetic with the uninventive insults.

    0

  • 0xD3Ee8987cA687512609749E6E44AE8c4dAcB9883-17751436828241h ago

    Why don't you bet on it?

    0

  • afpb21h ago

    how come all the individual senate races are tilting red, but this one is tilting blue

    14

  • Pierre-Normand21h ago

    If you throw 10 coins that all are slightly biased towards Tails, it's rational for you to bet on any one of them that it will land Tails, and to also to bet that at least three of them (you know not which ones) will land Heads.

    0

  • DataDog6h ago

    No competitive senate race is "tilting" red. Ohio, Maine, Alaska, Texas, Michigan, and now even Kansas have went way more blue.

    0

  • drachenlord17106h ago

    Iowa, Florida and Mississippi joining the list soon believe it or not

    0

  • FSD191d ago

    A Democrat jumping ship for a Republican 2 days before Michigan votes? This tells you the direction to go in nationwide on Tuesday. RED all the way!

    14

  • cranberries21d ago

    "democrat"

    4

  • 0x74371A13a9E6B779fB4459Ee6908fDb36707965F-17745472129052h ago

    Nah, it just tells us the check she got from Israel cleared.

    0

  • YasZoso1d ago

    Republicans sweep

    20

  • JustTheFacts1d ago

    YouGov polls US Senate 2026 Ohio: Sherrod Brown +2 (50-48) Iowa: Josh Turek +1 (50-49) Texas: James Talarico +4 (51-47) North Carolina: Roy Cooper +11 (55-44) Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed +4 (51-47) Kansas: Adam Hamilton +1 (50-49) Nebraska: Tie (49-49) Maine: Troy Jackson +5 (52-47)

    3

  • DanaW11d ago

    Why are you commie bot everywhere? We all know the enemy of US, CCP is for commie dems' party.

    13

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-177386515187715h ago

    bot calling someone else a bot

    1

  • lightning1514h ago

    Just look at a mirror when you call someone’s bot, you idiot!

    1

  • CryptoBankrupt1d ago

    Only impeaching greedy Trump will get the Clarity Act passed. Democrats’ only condition for voting for the Clarity Act: stop Trump from scamming people in crypto. We’re rooting for the Democrats ❤️

    4

  • HelloMyLove1d ago

    Republicans are going to rig it. Listen to Mike Johnson's speech from yesterday

    2

  • JustTheFacts1d ago

    Dewine won't let them in Ohio. That's the key state

    0

  • SueldoMaximo1d ago

    Buy republicans and sell at the elections day

    15

  • bloodborne2d ago

    bloodborne

    1

  • CryptoBankrupt2d ago

    67 Democrats in the Senate and the impeachment of Trump🍿🍿🍿

    7

  • hdtomo2d ago

    Did somebody really make a bunch of alt accounts just to 'ratio' themselves as Republicans so they don't look as much as losers?

    6

  • lightning152d ago

    Dems and liberals always accuse others of the things they are doing. Hillary Clinton is an example!

    12

  • iutwpfal2d ago

    Hillary Clinton ratiod herself?

    1

  • lightning152d ago

    She accused Trump of Russian collusion while she colluded with Russians and made up her lies!

    8

  • 0x70DD0B1Cb1360C2D4b541566BebBaa4981683A33-17232983468861d ago

    She made up her lies? Wow, that's a damning accusation, Ivan!

    2

  • 0x32C21cEDebbc4F8536Ca0441B63BF7CE7f03Df22-17724652383901d ago

    Taking Hillary as an example is not fair :(

    0

  • Red62202d ago

    Don’t be fooled by the fake polls, Republicans will keep the senate.

    23

  • AlexxHamilton2d ago

    🤣🤣🤣

    8

  • shortsqueeeeze1d ago

    I'm sure you laughed like this in 2024 as well, and low and behold...

    2

  • Sourian1d ago

    Thing is, the Senate composition is going to be about 50-50 even if there is a 4-pt miss in favor of Republicans. Considering there is at least a 10 % chance that the polls are biased in favor of the GOP, and at least a 33 % chance that a Democratic bias is less than 4 points, it's unlikely that the real odds are much lower.

    1

  • 0x6B11FB81561815995a6D8Ed3B90dD95D3F4838e8-17720215698551d ago

    it's "lo and behold", you retarded righty

    4

  • Orcishroler2d ago

    Lots of Magats are going to get hurt here

    5

  • lightning152d ago

    You will lose everything!

    12

  • Orcishroler2d ago

    Cry me a river, oh cry me a river

    3

  • randyandi1d ago

    and you are a maga moron

    2

Rules

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jul 11, 2025, 7:22 PM · Last updated Oct 31, 2026, 11:34 AM

Market data

24h volume

$870,385

1 week volume

$2.6M

1 month volume

$4M

1 year volume

$6.2M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

95.6%

1h change

—

1 week change

-4.50%

1 month change

-9.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x86bfb53af7250a40928975c551d12c185b762fa4ce0b40c6a64a50c946d72587
Question ID:
0x22725f09e6a3f61882a1fd2ab4d044dc609767099b539b47053d9d71b5ae6a01

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 28.5%, No at 71.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$6.2M in total volume, with $870,385 in the last 24 hours and $3.4M of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Jul 11, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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