Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

92.2%

24h change

+0.65%

Total volume

$6.5M

Liquidity

$3,534

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes7.8%

No92.2%

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Market opened Nov 27, 2025, 6:00 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$996

1 week volume

$1,550

1 month volume

$9,828

1 year volume

$6.5M

Spread

2.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

84.9%

1h change

-0.10%

1 week change

+1.25%

1 month change

+1.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x1d916047bbca1be9808076a0590c17ff113fb92986a4b4bc7f0f962642158827
Question ID:: 0x8e39bf8209a753b0bf2e78acb67d632707b29548b0ab014ce0f23c6d2599f40d

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 7.8%, No at 92.2% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$6.5M in total volume, with $996 in the last 24 hours and $3,534 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Dec 1, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.