Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes probability

99.7%

24h change

+1.00%

Total volume

$343,706

Liquidity

$5,938

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes99.7%

No0.3%

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Market opened Nov 27, 2025, 6:00 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$1,386

1 week volume

$4,571

1 month volume

$11,133

1 year volume

$343,706

Spread

0.20%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.2%

1h change

—

1 week change

+1.30%

1 month change

+8.20%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0xd15f77a921a1c8f807ce2c53a5c24a60876ed383c429445cd7f380a5ec8fe9ea
Question ID:: 0x78c9237d289b290dbc496293baf459b85b0d5fc7d743b09a9f6dde0dc3aa42f6

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 99.7%, No at 0.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$343,706 in total volume, with $1,386 in the last 24 hours and $5,938 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Dec 1, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.