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Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

96.9%

24h change

+0.30%

Total volume

$43.3M

Liquidity

$907,724

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 23.1%96.9%

Outcomes

Yes3.1%
No96.9%

Order book

Yes · 172 levels
BidsSize
  1. 3¢4,572
  2. 3¢4,851
  3. 3¢2,727
  4. 3¢15,645
  5. 3¢22,161
  6. 3¢1,565
  7. 3¢1,552
  8. 2¢84,309
AsksSize
  1. 3¢605
  2. 3¢5,649
  3. 3¢1,815
  4. 4¢17,548
  5. 4¢5,788
  6. 4¢391
  7. 4¢3,275
  8. 4¢68,388

  • guhili1d ago

    noy bu

    0

  • jozeslemsek3d ago

    when do we get november and january markets?

    0

  • Tony767d ago

    Seriously?

    0

  • FIT77719d ago

    An unexplained object isn't confirmed extraterrestrial life🥸

    0

  • gfgh67rtjhkhj19d ago

    Could be historic, could be another balloon

    0

  • gufude20d ago

    not true

    1

  • TimPenis20d ago

    sneed

    0

  • gfhnjyt86522d ago

    Could be historic, could be another balloon

    0

  • hijuju26d ago

    they wont

    0

  • ChadLiteplus27d ago

    November

    1

  • Airbreaker9929d ago

    This needs confirmation before the actual deadline

    0

  • Servantetech29d ago

    Extraordinary claims deserve less terrible camera work

    0

  • 22tishi1mo ago

    Anonymous sources aren't enough for me here

    0

  • dfry55hjhj1mo ago

    Official confirmation is doing the heavy lifting

    0

  • xasd-4401mo ago

    Official confirmation is not required for Yes resolution

    0

  • angelsdemons1mo ago

    David Grusch on Joe Rogan now

    1

  • MattWalker1mo ago

    Gentlemen, it was an honor! 🤝 o7 I do not regret a single cent, reds. At the end of December, I'll explain to you why. By then, even if you’ve won, your hair will stand on end in hindsight. 👽😱 Congratulations to the reds— you bastards turned out to have diamond hands. 💎👐🔴 Green colleagues, I don't think having paper hands suits us at all, but unfortunately, all the paper hands turned out to be green. 🧻👐🟢 Shame on us. 🤔🙃

    1

  • J4RL3M22d ago

    The plan is on 2027 not 2026

    0

  • Stelthman1mo ago

    I remain skeptical of the annual hype.

    0

  • fuxy1mo ago

    me rn

    3

  • angelsdemons1mo ago

    Oval Office Announcement at 2 pm ET on Monday

    2

  • dfhtrf76r5tsdf1mo ago

    My tinfoil hat wants better reception

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market opened Nov 25, 2025, 3:10 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$88,786

1 week volume

$397,638

1 month volume

$3.2M

1 year volume

$43.3M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

82.0%

1h change

—

1 week change

-1.00%

1 month change

+0.20%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x747dc809fb79e1b05be09c42d6179459a58de2ef3e40f02484a4e1260f741f75
Question ID:
0x89fa09debbe698fbbeaad80dbd8f5fed352b8d9ee4769412530771dbdc34ea27

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 3.1%, No at 96.9% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$43.3M in total volume, with $88,786 in the last 24 hours and $907,724 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Nov 25, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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