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AI bubble burst in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

91.3%

24h change

-0.90%

Total volume

$2.5M

Liquidity

$20,947

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 28.6%91.3%

Outcomes

Yes8.6%
No91.3%

Order book

Yes · 146 levels
BidsSize
  1. 8¢34
  2. 8¢373
  3. 8¢50
  4. 8¢150
  5. 8¢330
  6. 8¢130
  7. 8¢984
  8. 8¢1,120
AsksSize
  1. 9¢153
  2. 9¢50
  3. 9¢50
  4. 9¢22
  5. 9¢330
  6. 10¢50
  7. 10¢158
  8. 10¢112

  • Rooglish16d ago

    This might be the one

    0

  • Milin-dc27d ago

    The last point requires all to be down?

    0

  • Rooglish1mo ago

    Odds just jumped up?? But that's odd because the stock market is also up.

    0

  • AlexiosV1mo ago

    the top no holder sold all his shares with a market order. he threw away so much money lol. I'm so mad at myself for not having more limit orders in place

    0

  • Rooglish1mo ago

    Rates will probably be going up. The bubble depends on low rates staying low. One of these days, perhaps when nobody expects it...something will happen.

    0

  • AlexiosV1mo ago

    one or two quarter point hikes won't cause a 2022 style crash

    0

  • Rooglish3mo ago

    This bubble is bursting on summer earnings. Looks like this could indeed resolve to yes.

    0

  • Accalia3mo ago

    A slight pullback, which is already recovering.

    0

  • 0xd23F37B2A075419D9C8751F67E4B8d85F1546064-17674487638142mo ago

    Blud I think you need to switch up the strategy. Nasdaq and S&P closing new ATHs this month

    0

  • pika2zero3mo ago

    From its 2026 all-time high right? Because SMCI was already down >50% from its ATH at time of market creation. They topped in 2024

    0

  • pika2zero3mo ago

    Just noticed that smci is down 50% anyway. Now its on soxx to pump from here

    0

  • NoSteinNoGate3mo ago

    Not what the rules say. The 90 day rule means the 3 qualifying events must happen in a 90 day window. Every closing price that is 50% from its all-time high (regardless when that all time high happened) qualifies.

    2

  • pika2zero3mo ago

    Then its kinda stupid to include smci

    0

  • Rooglish3mo ago

    It says all events within 90 days. So it has to all be sudden.

    1

  • Rooglish4mo ago

    Looking at this again the rules are not favorable for a yes resolution even though the bubble is bursting. Market lower options are far better.

    7

  • 0xb3bD96BEa4509AA02a20587EF7fEf8E322a352c0-17808636525214mo ago

    I need a december 2027 option

    1

  • Wiczus5mo ago

    Bad rules...

    13

  • TonyQ74mo ago

    Fr

    0

  • Rooglish5mo ago

    Wow the odds keep increasing, but the nadsaq alao keeps puffing up higher into the atmosphere. That is completely... Illogical....but for a wyckoff distribution, is perfectly logical.

    0

  • Rooglish6mo ago

    This is about to go up in price /yes for by Dec significantly..

    0

  • Rooglish6mo ago

    This weekend has a very weird feel to it with these tech earnings and open ai problems. Sore video hallucinations. All that weird stuff like strawberries with a berry and straw. The Ai firms haven't fixed this problem. That was actually a reason for the first down market move from 25200 to 23500 summer 2025 support... Then we all concluded to buy the war dip and other stuff that no economist says actually make sense high oil prices are terrible for Ai. For tech. But most market participants don't know this. Yes, we've had a huge bullish move once the institutions stopped selling. People are buying for no reason, but they are, we have another bank failure, national debt a big problem, this fundamentally smells like an economic disaster but has kept meaning (???) higher prices lately for no reason.

    0

  • fuyangz6mo ago

    lol, this is like free money

    2

  • brzi1mo ago

    Should've bought more Nos then xd

    0

  • johnkop47mo ago

    The rules are bullshit for the following reasons: 1. Just one of many Semi companies dropping 50% from ATH does not really mean much 2. The rental price of H100 could fall to $1 if better hardware comes out or if the computing supply increases drastically 3. The SOXX etf dropping 40% from ATH (2024 levels) could be completely unrelated to AI and instead triggered by general market downturn since semiconductors are a volatile cyclical industry The 3 of those being equal to "AI bubble burst" is ridiculous

    2

  • rjpoly6mo ago

    I'd like to subscribe to more hot takes from people with 0 shares

    3

  • archived2501017mo ago

    OpenAI has dissolved Sora.

    0

  • arrieta7mo ago

    That doesn't affect the resolution of this market based on its rules

    3

  • archived2501017mo ago

    blah blah blah ediot

    0

  • Shellay7mo ago

    The biggest problem with AI foam right now is that the foam isn't big enough.

    0

  • Gary111117mo ago

    Baidu kunlunxin trained deepseek v4 so that should definitely pop the bubble

    0

  • devin.lawson.778mo ago

    Why is OpenAI being acquired listed as a prong?

    1

  • 0x2A96B985c0026a14A25810c93Ce5619920073860-17682496213108mo ago

    Super Micro Computer's ATH was 116 on March 07 2024 and it reached a price of 54 on August 12 2024 which was before this market was even created. Am I missing something?

    2

  • 0x12F5D91e9E8EA0092Fb79d47C7753A22B7BFC6bf-17715528948578mo ago

    Tenemos que fijarnos en el cierre del primer trimestre. (Q3)

    0

  • Leapfrog8mo ago

    It’s hard to understand why this market has held up this long.

    1

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market opened Nov 19, 2025, 2:25 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$10,365

1 week volume

$32,887

1 month volume

$115,665

1 year volume

$2.5M

Spread

0.70%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

85.4%

1h change

+0.60%

1 week change

-0.90%

1 month change

+1.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x857398c4502bc725fef7efb3cd503a30d3e18e486ab8173fdf505a76cf83b168
Question ID:
0x7813e729981529ee320e1b94f2d0e781e4eb5cbecd44de58b2cf4d6af90ae9db

Frequently asked questions

What is the "AI bubble burst in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 8.6%, No at 91.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2.5M in total volume, with $10,365 in the last 24 hours and $20,947 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Nov 20, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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