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Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?

Active · Ends Apr 19, 2027

No probability

92.7%

24h change

+1.15%

Total volume

$2.3M

Liquidity

$218,414

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 27.3%92.7%

Outcomes

Yes7.3%
No92.7%

Order book

Yes · 148 levels
BidsSize
  1. 7¢300
  2. 7¢37
  3. 7¢40,710
  4. 7¢6
  5. 7¢105
  6. 7¢1,941
  7. 7¢50,789
  8. 6¢469
AsksSize
  1. 7¢264
  2. 8¢6
  3. 8¢5
  4. 8¢100
  5. 8¢40
  6. 8¢212
  7. 9¢110
  8. 9¢1,834

  • Hot-Skull5h ago

    Lagarde a 9% 🫪

    0

  • LlamaLoco00009h ago

    Topping at exactly 50% is painful, there is no coming back from this, infinite downtrend to 0 for the FAR-RIGHT. 🫩

    0

  • LlamaLoco00009h ago

    10% for someone who's not even a candidate is insane. What's happening to Polymarket???

    1

  • john-difool21h ago

    De Villepin va bientôt annoncer sa candidature, il va pumper fort.

    3

  • smine19h ago

    PUMP IT !!! Villepin tellement sous évalué...

    1

  • Cracotte1d ago

    Mettez Asselinau ça va faire x10 avant l’élection

    0

  • 0x4A977d3209851F2378d04D949ff68da10a349a46-17723137984811d ago

    Melenchon va gagner haut la main, il est tellement sous évalué wtf

    5

  • askolein1d ago

    lol pourquoi? il est garanti de perdre au 2e tour face à n'importe qui, la probabilité est de <1% perso

    4

  • MagyarPeter20261d ago

    Doctors and engineers are not welcome in Europe

    1

  • PappyB1d ago

    Lisnard à 19% - à hurler de rire

    2

  • Poivre1d ago

    Je suis d'accord par contre 18k sur Mélenchon à 11,4 cents c'est audacieux mdr J'espère que tu vas sécuriser des profits s'il monte un peu plus haut.

    0

  • 0x4A977d3209851F2378d04D949ff68da10a349a46-17723137984811d ago

    18 k sur JLM TU VAS FAIRE ton jackpot l’année prochaine toi

    0

  • DFK1d ago

    Mélenchon va exploser. Il a le soutien de la gen Z , et elle va voter cette fois. Le monde est en train de changer.

    0

  • ZenMaxxing21h ago

    à hurler de rire

    0

  • Bobbise13h ago

    Les pnl a - de 5k n'ont pas le droit à la parole

    0

  • Poivre2h ago

    C'est les boomers qui contrôlent ce pays, pas la Gen Z

    0

  • Poivre1d ago

    Lagarde n'a rien à foutre à 5,5% elle devrait être à 0,2%. Entre ça et Lisnard ce marché devient n'importe quoi.

    3

  • flovertaco1d ago

    C'est clair ! Les Français ne sont ni assez idiots pour élire quelqu'un qui a elle-même dit que ce ne serait pas une bonne idée, ni assez capitalistes pour élire quelqu'un qui prône un libéralisme économique à outrance ! De toute façon, il n'y aura probablement aucun des deux sur les bulletins de vote au mois d'avril ...

    0

  • Poivre1d ago

    Lisnard si. En tant que président de l'Association des maires de France le fait qu'il ait les 500 signatures fait peu de doute.

    0

  • 0xYoru1d ago

    Christine Lagarde – La Croix Publication date: September 30, 2026 Journalist: “And what about running for president?” Christine Lagarde: “That would not be a good idea at all. It's a different job. First, there's the question of vitality, energy and strength. There's also an inevitable degree of personal sacrifice involved in this kind of commitment. And I'm 70 years old…”

    1

  • 0xYoru1d ago

    lock in

    0

  • Hot-Skull1d ago

    Christine lagarde a littérallement dit que ça serait pas une bonne idée de se presenter

    2

  • brainprediction1d ago

    faut creer la hype autour du grand monarque on va le faire pump comme lisnard

    3

  • DeverNoom2d ago

    Le grand monarque va gagner.

    3

  • Hot-Skull2d ago

    La prophétie !!!

    1

  • TonyVallelonga2d ago

    Attal a largement ses chances, il est tellement sous évalué

    0

  • BBZZZZ2d ago

    0 chance personne l’aime

    2

  • betjunkie2d ago

    Polls show MLP winning 2nd round within a range of +10% to +30% (depending on opponent)

    0

  • Poivre2d ago

    6 months prior to the election though

    1

  • BBZZZZ2d ago

    Bien rentable le Lisnard

    3

  • Hot-Skull2d ago

    Vend

    0

  • 0xYoru2d ago

    pleure

    0

  • forcrazy12512d ago

    Je lui achèterais les mouchoirs

    0

  • BBZZZZ2d ago

    J’attend jusqu’à l’élection

    0

  • Bobbise1d ago

    Grave

    0

  • Lawinshow2d ago

    Lisnard President ! Finally, no more turbo-socialists running our country !

    0

  • PappyB2d ago

    Ca serait beau mais... Reve toujours !

    0

  • Poivre3d ago

    Aya il continue sa manipulation cet enculé de Lisnard

    4

  • Hot-Skull2d ago

    Arréte de parler de manipulation y'a tout les médias de france qui vont casser les couilles

    1

  • Poivre2d ago

    Excuse le militant Nouvelle Energie

    0

  • 0x1Ad17035986496583d807f16Ebf94DB3Cce8E881-17730394477352d ago

    Cinq comptes concentraient 68 % des achats en septembre et trois comptes 40 % des mises entre le 2 et le 6 octobre...

    0

  • PappyB2d ago

    ça va être drole la correction sur Lisnard quand on va s'approcher de l'élection 🤣🤣

    2

  • BBZZZZ3d ago

    Force à ceux qui ont misé sur Édouard Philippe. Au final ça sera Lisnard le président

    7

  • forcrazy12512d ago

    Tellement d'accord, Lisnard sera président, lol les gens qui parie sur JLM

    1

  • askolein2d ago

    j'avais les deux pari longtemps, donc ça s'est annulé lol, mais bon, content pour Lisnard si réel

    0

  • Hot-Skull4d ago

    hahaha ils ont mis Sylvains Durif

    2

  • 0x1Ad17035986496583d807f16Ebf94DB3Cce8E881-17730394477353d ago

    Lol. Je suis curieux de voir comment il va récupérer 500 signatures d'élus.

    0

Rules

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Market opened Nov 12, 2025, 8:05 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:07 PM

Market data

24h volume

$121,171

1 week volume

$1.1M

1 month volume

$1.7M

1 year volume

$2.3M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

84.6%

1h change

-0.05%

1 week change

+7.10%

1 month change

+6.80%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0xf273da5c76e0116c0ec63787453b54d74f0c182256dff4ed2f27f08b14048f7c
Question ID:
0xdb7fd06931d5f8cec574bc6423d97f0c3a77e814e9b45119084f90e5a163222a

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?" prediction market?

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 7.3%, No at 92.7% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2.3M in total volume, with $121,171 in the last 24 hours and $218,414 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Apr 19, 2027. The market opened on Nov 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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