Iran Nuke before 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

96.9%

24h change

-0.55%

Total volume

$1.5M

Liquidity

$104,718

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes3.1%

No96.9%

Order book

Yes · 138 levels

BidsSize

3¢2,868
3¢2,978
3¢733
3¢1,479
3¢2,275
3¢23
2¢1,422
2¢2,718

AsksSize

3¢1,369
3¢266
3¢17
4¢408
4¢8,000
4¢2,483
4¢230
4¢295

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Market opened Nov 11, 2025, 10:40 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:09 PM

Market data

24h volume

$11,262

1 week volume

$55,240

1 month volume

$149,098

1 year volume

$1.5M

Spread

0.20%

Min order

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

82.0%

1h change

—

1 week change

-0.55%

1 month change

-0.90%

Negative risk

Condition ID:: 0x8bdeac60c92d3bc494792fd334ca181b0cf70355f23dca4098d558280b554c81
Question ID:: 0x64e0b09d3971269bbdb782e06a29a9af029d7a740f6308466d1034572856b455

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Iran Nuke before 2027?" prediction market?

What are the current odds?

Yes at 3.1%, No at 96.9% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.5M in total volume, with $11,262 in the last 24 hours and $104,718 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Nov 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.