Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

83.5%

24h change

—

Total volume

$66.8M

Liquidity

$833,845

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes16.5%

No83.5%

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Market opened Nov 4, 2025, 7:52 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 10:44 AM

Market data

24h volume

$310,666

1 week volume

$1.4M

1 month volume

$7.9M

1 year volume

$66.8M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

89.9%

1h change

—

1 week change

+1.00%

1 month change

-1.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
Question ID:: 0x132f882f851badfe460732d16fa20309910759adc990d9073e9f77ad6387d7c2

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 16.5%, No at 83.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$66.8M in total volume, with $310,666 in the last 24 hours and $833,845 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Nov 5, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.