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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

82.5%

24h change

—

Total volume

$76.7M

Liquidity

$299,065

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 217.5%82.5%

Outcomes

Yes17.5%
No82.5%

Order book

Yes · 94 levels
BidsSize
  1. 17¢19
  2. 16¢69,939
  3. 15¢244,267
  4. 14¢71,910
  5. 13¢74,415
  6. 12¢10,499
  7. 11¢10,888
  8. 10¢10,962
AsksSize
  1. 18¢35,096
  2. 19¢22,285
  3. 20¢60,781
  4. 21¢1,640
  5. 22¢1,722
  6. 23¢1,216
  7. 24¢117
  8. 25¢953

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Market opened Nov 4, 2025, 7:52 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:35 PM

Market data

24h volume

$524,191

1 week volume

$1.1M

1 month volume

$5.7M

1 year volume

$76.7M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

90.4%

1h change

+1.00%

1 week change

-1.50%

1 month change

+1.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846
Question ID:
0x132f882f851badfe460732d16fa20309910759adc990d9073e9f77ad6387d7c2

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 17.5%, No at 82.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$76.7M in total volume, with $524,191 in the last 24 hours and $299,065 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Nov 5, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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