Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Yes probability

87.5%

24h change

-3.00%

Total volume

$508,171

Liquidity

$192,960

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes87.5%

No12.5%

hdtomo4h ago
The early vote means Angie Nixon has probably* lost, which is a massive shame It's funny that we could see Louisiana be a surprise flip on the night while Florida stays red
0
drachenlord17102h ago
it literelly doesnt say that. Nixon did really good in the eraly vote
0
cranberries29h ago
I don't get it. Nixon is everywhere, while Moody doesn't even answer reporter's questions. She declined to debate her opponent, and did not campaign as vigorously. I think Nixon is highly underpriced.
1
drachenlord17108h ago
Moody does the same tactic like Paxton... hide and pray for registered republicans to show up
1
drachenlord17104d ago
early voting for reps is terrible in Florida. This might be underpriced big time
2
Magician53421d ago
Ok then why do you only buy 50 shares?
0
drachenlord17101d ago
republican registered voter turnout in the early voting is below 38% while earlyvote is at a all time high. This means that non party affiliated voters swing left this election big time. back to your question: because I am not sure yet that it will be enough on election day, but the chance for that is certainly not 10% its more like 35% so its worth the gamble with a little money at least
2
hdtomo1mo ago
One must understand that Florida has been polled as much as states like Kansas or South Carolina - partly for good reason, because the expectation is that Florida will have gotten more red in the fundamentals on top of already being a red state. However, if we are to believe Florida has NOT undergone a massive demographic shift from 2024 to 2026, the fundamentals are very similar to Texas. Texas is now a +4 to +5 race for the Democrats, if we were only to grant that Nixon were on equal footing to Talarico and waive Ashley Moodey as a good candidate by default, the race would already be a tossup, which two of the three polls in the last month reflect. Those polls could've come right out of Texas, Ohio, Iowa for all we care. For that reason, I will be placing my big bet for the midterms here
0
drachenlord17101d ago
imagine if florida had a talerico ossoff clone... this race would have been over yesterday
1
Magician53421mo ago
Far-left Nixon will be losing to Moody in a landslide
0
randyandi27d ago
good luck with that maga moron
1
Magician534222d ago
I am not MAGA. How can Democrats win Trump +13 deep-red Florida where socialism is extremely hated when they nominate a DSA candidate?
0
phony.stark6mo ago
Ashley Moody is a classless bitch! Don't vote for this slut. She sucked off Marco and Rick
2
bernardbulletin2mo ago
source?
0
degenwifhat1mo ago
dont trust the poors and brokies
0
hdtomo6mo ago
Per Public Policy Polling, if you remove Don't Knows, Florida is now only +2 Republican. Very interesting I think Florida is a long shot but it'll come as a surprise, the Republican pricing is more down to a lack of polls than confidence, like how Maine and Ohio were up till recently. South Carolina is worth watching too
1
BoysenBerry7mo ago
Republicans are going to crush lol idk what people are thinking
0
Belgaron2mo ago
Yes
0

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 10, 2025, 7:37 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$157,381

1 week volume

$326,075

1 month volume

$422,294

1 year volume

$512,723

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

87.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

-2.50%

1 month change

-4.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0xe655180a65e17b6959aa722821312de23513cba6c6d2e3a55f47f198977316bf
Question ID:: 0xfbc9abdccc8a4c941414d8c741b274bf58848fb8a92506ac1c33db1d9fed6701

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 87.5%, No at 12.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$508,171 in total volume, with $157,381 in the last 24 hours and $192,960 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.