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Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Yes probability

75.5%

24h change

+5.00%

Total volume

$4.6M

Liquidity

$1.4M

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 275.5%24.5%

Outcomes

Yes75.5%
No24.5%

Order book

Yes · 81 levels
BidsSize
  1. 75¢105,207
  2. 74¢58,982
  3. 73¢182,763
  4. 72¢119,893
  5. 71¢113,305
  6. 70¢115,770
  7. 69¢112,683
  8. 68¢99,156
AsksSize
  1. 76¢6,750
  2. 77¢279,832
  3. 78¢581,029
  4. 79¢1,127,030
  5. 80¢465,044
  6. 81¢8,537
  7. 82¢6,316
  8. 83¢5,000

  • Vyt06irneeth4h ago

    and its all

    0

  • Vyt06irneeth4h ago

    I sеe no point in trаding without instructions from rеalbengvir. Find them, аnd you’ll be able to аvоid losing bеts

    0

  • Kamirnornore62n4h ago

    thanks! it's really interesting

    0

  • Vyt06irneeth4h ago

    who can help me with that

    0

  • Bperil14h ago

    On a rainy night in a small-town Texas steakhouse, attorney general Ken Paxton arrives at one of his last campaign stops. Exhausted like a Texian soldier during the Runaway Scrape, he shambles up behind the podium. A few dozen eyes follow his every footstep. "Wow..." Paxton says. "This is a g-great crowd, p...people here know how much is... at *steak* ... in this election." *wink* Silence. Paxton is a poor speaker on his best days. This is not a good day. The silence lingers for a few more seconds until an 80-year-old woman claps. "Thank you for clapping," Paxton says. "You know it's funny, that reminds me..." Paxton adds, when suddenly a barbaric, baritone voice shrieks out: "PEDO PAXTON. PEDO PAXTON." The voice thunders. All hell breaks loose. The A.G.'s gray-shirted security team pounces on the man, a big bearded redneck who somehow slipped through security. He looked Republican. He's not, this time.

    18

  • drachenlord17108h ago

    lmao

    0

  • AnEggplant16h ago

    OUCH!!!!

    1

  • SheepToken17h ago

    sorry not sorry I don't make the rules

    1

  • pieped20h ago

    nop

    1

  • rutherford1d ago

    wen

    0

  • Red62201d ago

    The chairman of the Travis County Democratic Party says Talarico has "at most a 50% chance" of winning Per NYT

    2

  • AnEggplant1d ago

    And you only have $25 on the race? Either you’re poor or you don’t actually believe this stuff

    7

  • xaoo2d ago

    people are voting for a fking pdf defender? are you for real?

    6

  • pos1pos22d ago

    People voting for a guy who says God is non binary and blessed are the trans children? Are you for real?

    7

  • 0x70DD0B1Cb1360C2D4b541566BebBaa4981683A33-17232983468862d ago

    Yeah, God most definitely has a huge dick, who are we kidding?

    4

  • Av8er2d ago

    For real, who the hell can vote for that freak.

    3

  • pos1pos22d ago

    Wrong. God is unknowable and beyond our comprehension so our concepts of gender can not possibly be applied to god. The term non binary holds a lot of conceptual baggage so also doesnt apply. God isnt a man that wears nail polish, or a woman that cuts her hair short because shes self conscious, so no God isnt non binary.

    0

  • andromed41d ago

    so what youre saying is, he is non binary. Non binary is meant describe phenomena that do not rely on a simple two-state classification. Which would fit god, you would agree that god does not fit on a two-state classification, right?

    5

  • alexander111d ago

    He's right and based it directly on the language used in scripture where both masculine Hebrew nouns for divinity and feminine Hebrew nouns for spirit. Even fundamental theological point is widely accepted across Christianity: God is spirit and cannot be limited by human gender categories

    2

  • 0x17714F6F642957D6F4727eaA35A741028C149C5B-17756120092635h ago

    Then why did he backtrack and say he was just being provocative when he said that?

    0

  • Red62202d ago

    Fooled by the fake CNN polls, Talarico dreamers will lose their shirts next Tuesday.

    7

  • opp221d ago

    -$465

    3

  • AnEggplant3d ago

    Feeling Talafreaky

    12

  • brianweed3d ago

    white obama

    1

  • Treedud253d ago

    Democrats really falling for the polls again eh!??

    6

  • 0x8632B50876e160848027C6eEb60f704482728e1a-17597722361883d ago

    get ready to say bye bye to those 5k hahahha

    14

  • Treedud253d ago

    You don’t even have a position 😂

    5

  • 0x2F3f83AC3af54765994D0ae18A6e0442527aBC75-17622031217601d ago

    Bro you have TWO winns total!!!? Like TWO!? and SOOOOO many losses!

    3

  • DickyRubnuts1d ago

    he has like 20 losses in a row. Has to be a joke?

    1

  • themightyslug17h ago

    You’re gonna wish you didn’t very soon. 🤣

    0

  • Rayse4d ago

    Its going to be so funny if this is Talarico +5

    2

  • 0x6B11FB81561815995a6D8Ed3B90dD95D3F4838e8-17720215698554d ago

    no, this is Patrick

    5

  • dunlur4d ago

    these fellas so silly

    1

  • curlyb0y5d ago

    pacto wekito

    1

  • vlnvndthkvlt5d ago

    q prefieres frijolero

    0

  • alexander116d ago

    I’m 100% rooting for Ken Paxton, not because he will win, but because whoever I root for tends to lose

    23

  • Sigma16345d ago

    🤣

    2

  • drachenlord17104d ago

    at least you have a better taste in politics than in lol

    1

  • xaoo6d ago

    Musk invested hundreds of millions in Ken. He also deployed his bots on X. What is he so afraid of, lol?

    4

  • PaulRevere5d ago

    He’s prolly terrified of you

    0

  • xaoo4d ago

    I am not surprised. He is deathly afraid of people who tell the truth, because he himself is incapable of doing so.

    2

  • caprice13d ago

    Who cares about X ?

    0

  • xaoo3d ago

    Idk. Ask Elon.

    1

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 10, 2025, 7:25 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:27 PM

Market data

24h volume

$447,042

1 week volume

$1.9M

1 month volume

$3.8M

1 year volume

$4.6M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

93.9%

1h change

—

1 week change

+11.00%

1 month change

+11.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x34918035a590555ba1fb1d6a019d766ab6e557d63e7f3140b63b4550eee7f417
Question ID:
0xc28de94670037940b4276fff7928ce0fe395bbbb0b9f060d57735ba30408a100

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 75.5%, No at 24.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$4.6M in total volume, with $447,042 in the last 24 hours and $1.4M of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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