Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

No probability

68.5%

24h change

+6.00%

Total volume

$1M

Liquidity

$508,835

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes31.5%

No68.5%

Politika4d ago
Turn it blue
3
VEQT5d ago
Americans take back your country from this cult. FLIP SOUTH CAROLINA BLUE
12
ConsensusIsWrongUA5d ago
1. *Very red state.* Trump won it by 18 in 2024. 2. *SC polls overrate Democrats.* In 2020 Harrison raised $100M+ and polled "tied" with Lindsey Graham, then lost by ~10. 3. *Graham still leads.* She's narrowly ahead even in NYT/Siena's "tie" (before rounding). Citadel has her +4, Trafalgar +3, and the average is about +2-3. 4. *Andrews must outrun her party.* In the same Siena poll, the GOP governor candidate leads by 7. She needs a lot of split-ticket voters, which is rare. 5. *GOP enthusiasm is higher.* Andrews' negatives are rising, and late undecideds in red states usually break Republican. 6. *Full party machine behind Graham.* She has Trump's backing, a $5M late GOP ad push, and incumbency. 7. *Attacks are landing.* Her past positions on trans issues are a strong turnoff for conservative voters. 8. *The market agrees.* Polymarket has Graham at ~73%, already pricing in the polling bias.
0
AnEggplant5d ago
Imagine coping so hard you decide to write a wall of text on a Polymarket comment board
8
ConsensusIsWrongUA5d ago
73 / 27 bro, what is coping?
0
th3witn3ss4d ago
not even a holder...
0
HDTomo-2295d ago
Everything I said about Lindsey Graham carries over more than I expected Though, the markets are rallying on polls worse than even Jaime Harrison had. NYT is a lot closer for Annie Andrews however. South Carolina is a sleeper, but don't be surprised for it to dissapoint.
0
JustTheFacts21d ago
That debate was a disaster for Graham. She is out of her depth.
3
DumbMoney22221mo ago
Republican insiders say it's a toss-up [50/50]. You can get seven to 1 on Darline losing
8
Channel43mo ago
Now it’s a guaranteed seat for the Republicans. According to polls, Graham consistently ranks among the top five least popular senators and has underperformed compared to the national average. Graham averages R+7, while Trump won the state by R+18. Graham was the only reason South Carolina wasn't solid red
3
HDTomo-2296mo ago
I agree fully with the repricing, but is there any reason it happened in particular?
0
HDTomo-2297mo ago
A Democratic win is undepriced imo. Lindsey Graham has gone balls deep into supporting the Iran war, even in November, before the Blue Wave matured beyond special election overperformance, two polls put him at winning by only +2 over a generic Democrat. No polls have happened since as the Democratic narrative has codified nationwide and the beginning of the Iran war he has fully endorsed, far more than necessary (i.e., pledging South Carolina's children to die in Iran), and similar conditions have resulted in unprecedented poll flips in Texas and now Ohio, even before the war began. Combined with Lindsey's unpopularity, a shock Democrat opening here seems very likely imo.
3
0xbb82f67a8661078990caC0a86cB44227c0021815-17832330618753mo ago
You’re a dumbass if you believe any of the nonsense you just said.
0
hdtomo2mo ago
I stand by what I said, but with Graham's passing the load bearing argument is gone
4
randyandi1mo ago
and you are a maga moron and will loose badly - no one in the world can believe that you idiots elected a criminal rapist twice shame on you
2

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 10, 2025, 7:20 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$152,173

1 week volume

$383,963

1 month volume

$705,371

1 year volume

$1M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

96.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

+8.50%

1 month change

+19.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0x4de72138204727d2821bff847d8158819ab5b591db1b5b263676126cbb3a0430
Question ID:: 0xf52faa8a8f0f59c85f2049363125e633127791ccfdc5c35ff8fdab9d849f8700

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm South Carolina U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 31.5%, No at 68.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1M in total volume, with $152,173 in the last 24 hours and $508,835 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.