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Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

No probability

78.5%

24h change

-4.00%

Total volume

$3.4M

Liquidity

$930,071

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 221.5%78.5%

Outcomes

Yes21.5%
No78.5%

Order book

Yes · 65 levels
BidsSize
  1. 21¢191,020
  2. 20¢84,146
  3. 19¢125,783
  4. 18¢545,851
  5. 17¢274,788
  6. 16¢670,827
  7. 15¢22,436
  8. 13¢828
AsksSize
  1. 22¢159,507
  2. 23¢52,337
  3. 24¢91,501
  4. 25¢235,654
  5. 26¢14,326
  6. 27¢12,379
  7. 28¢5,617
  8. 29¢61,545

  • revoke2211h ago

    free money

    0

  • Waltpikman2h ago

    Lib americans are crazy, vote for Abdul? wtf... commi propaganda do his work in america.

    1

  • DumbDumb1h ago

    buy more

    1

  • YourAnimeGirl7h ago

    Sayed will destroy Michigan like France so vote for him guys to win this ahaha

    4

  • AnEggplant5h ago

    Gladly

    1

  • ThisIsOneAboveAll10h ago

    Betting $1 On Abdul XD

    1

  • cyamski5h ago

    Broke ass

    0

  • EverythingAlwaysHappens12h ago

    don't let me down you filthy goatfugger

    0

  • RepublicOfChina16h ago

    審判叛徒！

    2

  • KimchiCapital18h ago

    Not voting for a muslim like Mike Rogers

    2

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-177386515187715h ago

    Mike wants shariah law 😡

    5

  • marklar20h ago

    Even Dems are against this extremist. Polls are gunna be wrong again lol

    4

  • 0x8632B50876e160848027C6eEb60f704482728e1a-175977223618819h ago

    Then bet against him and make money loser

    5

  • jumboNuts19h ago

    why are you here? I see you are not holding any shares

    0

  • YourAnimeGirl18h ago

    fill my order on NO El Sayed

    0

  • 0x8632B50876e160848027C6eEb60f704482728e1a-17597722361887h ago

    enjoy the loss hahahah

    0

  • YourAnimeGirl7h ago

    Go all in for yes before comment this

    0

  • Giorgio21d ago

    Every voter in Michigan is watching the Lions game right now and don’t give a shit about this

    6

  • will.FREEFREE1d ago

    El-Sayed is back...

    4

  • Giorgio21d ago

    Diesel is at $6,1, Generic ballot is D+10, AES is +5 at Rasmussen lol

    5

  • MIGA2026MargbarKhamenei1d ago

    And a candidate from the Muslim brotherhood is going to resolve that, RIGHT …

    3

  • 0xf6E997149D940083178AD46947000228548a51Ae-17819105277281d ago

    did you know you were peddling lies or you got conned by someone? fact checked it for you..No Association: Dr. Abdul El-Sayed—a Michigan-born physician, epidemiologist, Rhodes Scholar, and former public health director for Detroit and Wayne County—has no connection whatsoever to the Muslim Brotherhood. Origin of the False Claim: Islamophobic political smears targeting high-profile Muslim-American public figures

    0

  • MIGA2026MargbarKhamenei1d ago

    No lies whatsoever, he’s not a real doctor, never saw any patients, never treated any patients potentially FGM in accordance to Egyptian culture (80% of Egyptian females were forced into it, no that you’d care), not wanting to force upon Americans hijab and FGM is not ‘Islamophobia

    1

  • rontro2820h ago

    No connection - apart from the fact that he loves them, the largest muslim terrororganisation.

    3

  • MaxShorter1d ago

    Is stevens endorsing rogers bullish or bearish, I can't tell

    0

  • cranberries21d ago

    It will probably have the boomerang effect. She'll piss people off.

    0

  • toosensitive1d ago

    internal faction bifurcation is always beneficial for the opposition

    2

  • MaxShorter1d ago

    That was my first reaction, but I don't know how loyal Michigan voters are to the party, Cuomo ran mamdani close after he won the DNC nominee

    0

  • cranberries21d ago

    It could go both ways, but her staffers walked out on her, and dems seem pissed. It's def backfiring.

    0

  • Ene-7712h ago

    they are both for Israel so i wouldnt know

    0

  • truthteller1d ago

    Good for her, supporting COUNTRY over PARTY: the phrase libs keep yapping and yapping about. And now that a democrat did it , they are FURIOUS. Make it make sense PLEASE

    8

  • TheArtOfTACO1d ago

    Which country, US or Israel?

    7

  • volkglazer23h ago

    whatever country comes to stevens in her dreams

    0

  • makeit9922h ago

    good for her and now she is rich and able to retire

    0

  • truthteller20h ago

    US #1 Israel #2 Didn't libs yap and yap about supporting our allies?

    1

  • 0x2E19752cf67f7D5B47e49fA366D81e8C73912893-177593487628320h ago

    Well, she chose the country of Israel.

    0

  • truthteller20h ago

    nope, she is against islamic terrorists: as we all should be. Country over party!

    1

  • rontro2820h ago

    I love you, mate!

    1

  • BallyhooFrampton14h ago

    Which country?

    0

  • AnEggplant5h ago

    Why did you sell all your Rogers bro

    0

  • JustTheFacts1d ago

    well that didnt work MAGA- what else you got?

    1

  • Giorgio21d ago

    Exactly the kind of online bs controversy which will change no one’s vote.

    8

  • thevicentesilva1d ago

    Is anyone surprise Haley "Israel comes to me in my dreams" Stevens is trying to destroy Abdul's campaign at the last moment?

    11

  • ItsRigg3d1d ago

    Better than Ha ma s coming to you in your dreams I guess

    3

  • thevicentesilva1d ago

    did he say that?

    4

  • cranberries21d ago

    Haley Stevens belongs in Walmart. I mean, have you seen her campaign videos? Absolutely ridiculous.

    5

  • iutwpfal5d ago

    Can we gamble without racism no

    11

  • MIGA2026MargbarKhamenei4d ago

    Islam is not a race

    15

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-17738651518773d ago

    It is racism when you target based on the color of skin]. Racists call all brown people muslim

    1

  • rontro283d ago

    You are defending Islam, but you are among the first they will kill, when they gain power.

    2

  • seemeyoume2d ago

    Fk this guy has our grand plan folks go plan B

    1

  • EverythingAlwaysHappens12h ago

    only goyim care about racism

    0

  • curious.pangolin6d ago

    Abdul El-Sayed is campaigning with Obama, whilst Michiganders are losing complete faith in trump. Rogers is not capable of beating him under this political climate.

    10

  • MIGA2026MargbarKhamenei6d ago

    Majority of Michiganders are against Jihad regardless of Obama or climate.

    3

  • JustTheFacts5d ago

    Majority of Michiganders would rather support Jihad than MAGA morons

    5

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-17738651518775d ago

    You people called Obama a jihad terrorist just like you did with Abdul. No one is falling for it.

    3

  • JustTheFacts6d ago

    Best pollster in Michigan New - Senate/Governor poll - Michigan Senate 🔵 Abdul El-Sayed 51％ (+7.4) 🔴 Mike Rogers 45％ (-0.9) Last poll: Rogers +2 (8.3 point 🔵 swing) Glengariff (B+) - LV - 10/22

    3

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 10, 2025, 7:02 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:29 PM

Market data

24h volume

$476,210

1 week volume

$2.3M

1 month volume

$2.9M

1 year volume

$3.4M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

92.5%

1h change

—

1 week change

-11.00%

1 month change

-6.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x3fd189cac9280dfc49a07115581e8d4c9e0b7e1c1e8580a44e9ff3d74e39cf2d
Question ID:
0xe248544b979907ec155437a6317d8417c7724f2eccc07a69df8971c429c4b001

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Michigan U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 21.5%, No at 78.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$3.4M in total volume, with $476,210 in the last 24 hours and $930,071 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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