Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Yes probability

61.5%

24h change

+9.00%

Total volume

$1.1M

Liquidity

$514,609

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes61.5%

No38.5%

DonDeniro7h ago
Losing Kansas is not a blue wave, its a tsunami
1
bernardbulletin9h ago
After Tueday I'll have enough to pay off my medical debts
6
Rayse8h ago
Roger Marshall will no longer be able to hound you 🥺
2
xaoo9h ago
??
1
chickendinner691d ago
You people are smoking crack
0
AnEggplant17h ago
This comment aged like crack. Ass crack, that is
6
randyandi11h ago
you should blame your orange woman raping cult leader
1
jiffyjoker668882d ago
wow a deep red state flipping blue. Well done Trump
2
andromed42d ago
lmao what happened, why did the odds crash
0
guilha2d ago
who will win ?
0
northtorontoboy3d ago
it's over for MAGA
2
masnjr3d ago
ITS HAPPENING HOLY SHIIII
2
xaoo3d ago
no way right? was he undervalued or what happened?
0
AnEggplant3d ago
Nothing go back to sleep bb
0
Voland67773d ago
It's flipped. First time from 1932 Kansas is going blue, historic day!
3
Voland67774d ago
Omg, it's coming
2
drachenlord17103d ago
did you come already?
0
JakeMastersun4d ago
Marshall is more likley to loose than hinson dont know why this was ever so low
2
hdtomo4d ago
Kansas will go blue, I think it's beyond question. It's been the modal case since Hamilton began doing a Talarico run of consecutive poll leads When you look back to races like Jamie Harrison's or Beto O'Rourke it's important to understand that the Democrat never really lead for any period of time in those races. If Kansas really were favoured to the Republican the polls would look more like South Carolina currently
3
hdtomo4d ago
I suppose more accurately it's been beyond question since Marshall began larping low gas prices
2
Rayse4d ago
I think people are slowly realizing that Hamilton has almost as high a chance as Talarico
5
drachenlord17104d ago
yeah but nobody givesa shit about bmfuck-nowhere Kansas, so people didnt notice
0
AnEggplant1mo ago
(Still underpriced)
3

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 10, 2025, 6:56 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$146,320

1 week volume

$602,156

1 month volume

$910,824

1 year volume

$1.1M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

98.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

+24.00%

1 month change

+27.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0x460d3942d385cdeda20519c0c5ad804ae48dc18efc9a82e1f1be87a29e69adb3
Question ID:: 0x82cc8472987cbe607955a29017c930096689633ca5d9fc80b0a0ce3bdcabe100

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 61.5%, No at 38.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.1M in total volume, with $146,320 in the last 24 hours and $514,609 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.