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Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Yes probability

51.5%

24h change

-7.00%

Total volume

$1.1M

Liquidity

$450,371

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 251.5%48.5%

Outcomes

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Order book

Yes · 63 levels
BidsSize
  1. 51¢4,772
  2. 50¢10,373
  3. 49¢178,624
  4. 48¢3,012
  5. 47¢42,816
  6. 46¢950
  7. 45¢1,974
  8. 44¢2,056
AsksSize
  1. 52¢126,059
  2. 53¢80,829
  3. 54¢160,236
  4. 55¢157,184
  5. 56¢11,023
  6. 57¢5,820
  7. 58¢5,100
  8. 59¢5,222

  • drachenlord17106h ago

    the crossis gona happen soon isnt it?

    1

  • Rayse7h ago

    Iowa doesnt have many good polls. The fact that Kansas is nearly likely D means Iowa is almost certainly in a similar place

    3

  • Voland67779h ago

    If Kansas has flipped, then Iowa must do the same. Iowa have much bigget share of democrats and it voted for Obama twice in 2008 and 2012.

    2

  • volkglazer1d ago

    you can get a dollar for 59 cents. IA won’t flip but KS will

    1

  • LittleOrphanFunkhouser1d ago

    Ashley Hinson is a 10/10 milf baddie, so she will win.

    2

  • xaoo4d ago

    Why Turek is catching up suddenly? Was he undervalued?

    0

  • DumbDumb3d ago

    yes. buy

    1

  • bernardbulletin3d ago

    i guess you could say he's "running" strong

    3

  • xaoo6h ago

    I mean.. you went hard so you must know more than me

    0

  • amblified8d ago

    Anti-trans dems don't win. He's desperate and pulling his party's version of a Ramaswamy. It won't work.

    0

  • hdtomo1mo ago

    Both politicians have polled above 50% at least once, which means the polls have been definitive for both sides at least once. For Turek a few times more than Hinson. That's more than any of the other swing states, which probably means the answer is in the national environment, not the polls.

    2

  • JustTheFacts1mo ago

    Turek is leading in all polls.

    1

  • bernardbulletin7mo ago

    50-50 this summer

    9

  • MispricedPaladin4mo ago

    Hinson and her dumb speeches about being a mom is going to haunt your dreams

    0

  • MispricedPaladin1mo ago

    bro summer already passed

    0

  • bernardbulletin1mo ago

    summer ends sept. 22 8:04 PM Eastern

    4

  • MispricedPaladin1mo ago

    Do you have a crystal ball?

    1

  • G.Hchen1mo ago

    Wow

    2

  • stephansmith20041mo ago

    Legend

    1

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 10, 2025, 6:55 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$135,852

1 week volume

$590,216

1 month volume

$770,351

1 year volume

$1.1M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

100.0%

1h change

—

1 week change

-6.00%

1 month change

-5.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x38a1025bfc56539ed1ff8fdd468283d55cf9002412decd61aa8d6c578c7d01a2
Question ID:
0x0b82e6f615c0e7a8e8b928b1da44b7c47f4225f080b6c77ecb76daf2d4bfa601

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Iowa U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 51.5%, No at 48.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.1M in total volume, with $135,852 in the last 24 hours and $450,371 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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