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Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

No probability

60.5%

24h change

+6.00%

Total volume

$830,581

Liquidity

$480,314

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 239.5%60.5%

Outcomes

Yes39.5%
No60.5%

Order book

Yes · 78 levels
BidsSize
  1. 39¢115
  2. 38¢47,982
  3. 37¢192,646
  4. 36¢35,715
  5. 35¢120,972
  6. 34¢57,560
  7. 33¢100,037
  8. 32¢83,661
AsksSize
  1. 40¢58,250
  2. 41¢62,589
  3. 42¢96,288
  4. 43¢9,560
  5. 44¢38,827
  6. 45¢5,450
  7. 46¢5,777
  8. 47¢5,222

  • trumpstore5h ago

    Abbott will win by +5!

    0

  • randyandi3h ago

    trumpstore idiot

    0

  • bo0xts16h ago

    biggeest pea brain you know thinks Gina is going to win

    0

  • Treedud253d ago

    What are we even doing here 😂 yall actually think Talarico has a better chance than Abbott?!!!!?

    2

  • AnEggplant17h ago

    Talarico definitely has a better chance than Abbott

    2

  • HDTomo-2295d ago

    It's rallying on early votes, I think it's just a sign that Talarico has it in the bag, not that Hinojosa won

    1

  • Iax10d ago

    the goyim have no idea.

    0

  • AnEggplant13d ago

    Uh oh Abbott Bros I don't feel so good

    5

  • AnEggplant27d ago

    This market has the memory of a magat

    4

  • G.Hchen1mo ago

    Texas Safe D

    8

  • Bodibol16d ago

    1/10 ragebait

    1

  • HDTomo-2295d ago

    Exactly, good ragebait must be a lie

    0

  • AnEggplant1mo ago

    When does this market realize Hinajosa is STILL underpriced?

    4

  • HDTomo-2291mo ago

    Things probably start to get a lot better for Hinojosa contingent on Talarico getting 10+, even if she doesn't get any explicit polling wins

    0

  • HDTomo-2291mo ago

    At least one +10 poll*

    0

  • Magician53421mo ago

    More likely the 2022 Georgia midterm: D Senate and R Gov. Of coz, Abbott is not winning by 8, but he should be re-elected within a small margin

    0

  • AnEggplant1mo ago

    This pricing is now officially retarded

    1

  • sygic-sys-man3mo ago

    Has anybody been following the political detention of @governorgauthier on IG or seen gov(dot)ariselabs(dot)cloud ? did you all notice the polls stopped recently. It seems texas has become a police state run by the current ruling order and they may be trying to control the narrative and proactively meddle in the elections. Can this be updated to include all politicians?

    0

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 10, 2025, 12:00 AM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$155,261

1 week volume

$420,477

1 month volume

$665,734

1 year volume

$830,928

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

98.9%

1h change

—

1 week change

+8.50%

1 month change

+15.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x12b727031b38130d945b3e164386874360d9a32fdd7e3d00ed2adb13857e089b
Question ID:
0x195e8f642b0735fb05cfad8a7e5825dd80a447071b2dd6b3b55861c8243b9900

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven't called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 39.5%, No at 60.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$830,581 in total volume, with $155,261 in the last 24 hours and $480,314 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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