Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

Yes probability

65.5%

24h change

+2.00%

Total volume

$925,425

Liquidity

$375,084

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes65.5%

No34.5%

Obamnna7h ago
Donalds is a thug but a fine bet
0
GoblinMilk12h ago
There's something so dark about Donalds that I just can't quite put my finger on
0
GRODT2d ago
The lower the price, the better. Donalds W.
1
supercid8772d ago
Bring me lower Donalds shares please.
0
0x560f444b0B98aEA5e8714414bfe37bC64CF14691-17278651036747h ago
load up
0
th322d ago
Took jolly for the. luls and polling is getting closer
0
bo0xts3d ago
Jolly holders must be high off that ai pack
1
HDTomo-2294d ago
If the market is remotely right about Angie Nixon then this is an easy Republican hold. It's strange that Jolly is rallying, though I hope he wins
0
NotSomeDumbIndianBitch8d ago
I find it amazing that anyone is taking Jolly here. This should be 95/5
0
randyandi5d ago
and wyh is that? Jolly will win
3
bo0xts11d ago
watch and learn
1
Magician534210d ago
I regret not buying more when it is 73c for Donalds😭
0
0x560f444b0B98aEA5e8714414bfe37bC64CF14691-17278651036744d ago
.72 now, load up
0
Magician53421mo ago
Wow A dollar is on sale for 80 cents!
3
enekestomi1mo ago
Always love a good deal 🙏
2
AnEggplant1mo ago
Traders seem to be sleeping on the facts that a sizable number of Republican voters in northwest Florida, many of whom turned out for both Trump and Desantis over the last 4 years, won’t turn out for a Black man and that many others of them won’t turn out because their morale is in the basement.
4
0x41Aae1DFB7948F74937a0dfED845990A2E1B47E9-17819769323832mo ago
This is one of the best trades on the market! I live in St. Pete Florida and I can tell you the GOP's dominance is over.
6
Mikaelo4mo ago
I don't understand how there's any doubt republicans will win. Fl is a red state by safe margins nowadays
1
0x88A2d7b039f16099250e447D5DB48a2346b27D28-17818986632133mo ago
Because the alleged front-runner has a serious criminal past.
2
Tileartfl3mo ago
No One wants Data Centers. I will vote for Jolly before I vote Red Whacka Flocka Donalds
3
0xb63dfbD40F3C32289DE697f269de7D45D89d3F33-17641856549542mo ago
no thanks, both parties are corrupt.
0
phony.stark6mo ago
My state fucking sucks so it will probably vote in this swamp creature Donalds. Real shortage of intelligence down here, along with rainfall
10
hdtomo7mo ago
Florida polled +1 to a DEMOCRAT??? Granted, Casey DeSantis isn't the frontrunner, but the fact that it is even possible? Florida is still purple
2

Rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Market opened Oct 9, 2025, 10:51 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$261,565

1 week volume

$687,974

1 month volume

$804,526

1 year volume

$925,087

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

97.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

-16.00%

1 month change

-12.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0xcceae66d81c60f90c9679ab531b865bd7e9f95cc54f7b0634a24095519b10d65
Question ID:: 0x2a010ed53626a15e07979c1c1ccf3510be5c57eb66d9a081f6e0dcecfdfb1501

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 65.5%, No at 34.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$925,425 in total volume, with $261,565 in the last 24 hours and $375,084 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 13, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.