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Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

No probability

98.2%

24h change

+0.20%

Total volume

$4.6M

Liquidity

$705,320

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 21.8%98.2%

Outcomes

Yes1.8%
No98.2%

Order book

Yes · 126 levels
BidsSize
  1. 2¢1,037
  2. 2¢59
  3. 2¢211
  4. 2¢3,298
  5. 1¢10,000
  6. 1¢19,266
  7. 1¢22,246
  8. 1¢93,728
AsksSize
  1. 2¢3,355
  2. 2¢25,505
  3. 2¢8,506
  4. 2¢13,000
  5. 2¢2,286
  6. 2¢4,559
  7. 3¢55,680
  8. 3¢200,243

  • Ferwhere2d ago

    Wow….

    0

  • OATH198911d ago

    Earning a 3% risk-free return in 10 days I think that’s great.

    0

  • feyry22d ago

    I'm watching the gap behind the favorite

    1

  • Magician53421mo ago

    A 40-day 5% bond on sale!

    0

  • coinlists212mo ago

    where is Xander

    0

  • NoSteinNoGate3mo ago

    Why was the likely winner at almost 0% at one point?

    0

  • shieldsnorma7074mo ago

    omg, 90% already

    1

  • bananavomBa7173mo ago

    100prc is near

    0

  • Mikaelo4mo ago

    Easiest 11c ever

    1

  • 0x44vanz4mo ago

    very strange. do people think a trump repub can win cal? lol

    2

  • NixNov0084mo ago

    California will always be Blue

    0

  • Huskybee4mo ago

    Porter and Caruso look like the real two horse race here

    0

  • zepon5mo ago

    xavious gonna be saviour

    0

  • NixNov0085mo ago

    Why the hell that billionaires Steyer is at 21% ahead of Hilton. He won't even win the primary.

    0

  • MugenX5mo ago

    Hilton is in the lead though so this doesn't make sense

    3

  • Loggerhead5mo ago

    ikr

    0

  • DonaldTrumpito5mo ago

    It does make sense when you realize Becerra will most likely absorb many of Steyer’s vote in the actual election.

    1

  • iSELLHELLACRACK5mo ago

    perhaps but the split should be closer to 50/50 rather than 90/10

    1

  • AnEggplant4mo ago

    We so appreciate your donation

    0

  • NixNov0084mo ago

    There is one thing You must learn. California will always be blue!

    0

  • iSELLHELLACRACK4mo ago

    You’re in a cult

    0

  • dakotafox985mo ago

    who is who

    0

  • facekunal5mo ago

    interesting

    0

  • trafefair5mo ago

    The consensus view seems overconfident on this one

    1

  • BrumelCompanyLTD5mo ago

    time to voteee😏

    3

  • PeterMagyar5mo ago

    Berkeley/IGS poll is coming soon

    0

  • PeterMagyar5mo ago

    Gonna come out after memorial day

    0

  • desfero5mo ago

    is this still live?

    0

  • LiquidatedDegen5mo ago

    As long as Becerra doesn't mess up tonight's debate, it'll be #BecerraEra

    1

  • PeterMagyar5mo ago

    Becerra 20% Steyer 19% Hilton 18% Porter 13% Bianco 12% Mahan 9% Emerson #A - LV - 5/10

    3

Rules

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Market opened Oct 9, 2025, 7:56 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$198,798

1 week volume

$874,636

1 month volume

$1.4M

1 year volume

$4.6M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.2%

1h change

+0.20%

1 week change

-1.30%

1 month change

-2.10%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x119b6b3b744ac3239c7a71100165d254234eaecea401abde5a3d303bef21d19e
Question ID:
0x0b6235b08df5cb142c191a770c6fd31e97facff05fb7f56c572a435bf73b7c04

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 1.8%, No at 98.2% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$4.6M in total volume, with $198,798 in the last 24 hours and $705,320 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Oct 9, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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