Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

100.0%

24h change

—

Total volume

$3.3M

Liquidity

$272,790

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes0.1%

No100.0%

ToToTo-59715d ago
I'd leave room for a long pause
0
TheAirdropMars16d ago
Yes 💯
0
0xe4edbC9Bf249055829c9cE8955222d5bf084b5BC-177531435313517d ago
If there is a financial crash like 2000/2008 or corona 2020 we will see what will happen to oil price and interest rates will melt down 10-12+ rate cuts are very POSSIBLE valuation of Anthropic 500 billion down
0
0x15577ed6E4D820F3b4C5DCD543699BEad9B489fe-177532899253319d ago
crazy 0 went from 2.8% chance to 99%
0
PouringRain1mo ago
Been trading this on perps too. Curious how everyone is positioning here. For anyone looking for it: 015ssr4c
0
verygoodhhh1mo ago
with the
0
jozeslemsek1mo ago
Why is the pricing on this market misaligned with the "fed decision in december" market?
2
RimROm1mo ago
What would make the committee accelerate rather than pause?👹
0
Ozir2mo ago
Surprise coming 😂
1
crshel22mo ago
0 bps now and 15%, hmmm
1
Linguine122mo ago
Are people still looking for perps?
0
Price0312mo ago
yes
0
mkskstk12mo ago
whats going on here?
0
Stefnc2mo ago
Changer la photo de Powell
0
Jeffrey-Einstein2mo ago
no, jerome is the king of the world
1
toneth3mo ago
They dont update that picture cause Jpow printer go Burrrr
0
0xD31e0f4637C081aB6B27274b11483fce638F541e-17625835082353mo ago
If the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points and then cuts rates by 25 basis points, is this regarded as one rate cut?
2
AlexiosV3mo ago
yes
1
Jeffrey-Einstein3mo ago
wont happen in the same year, fed policy actions take anywhere between 8-12 months or even longer to realize their impact on the economy, therefore it would be premature to do anything until you see what your cuts or hikes are doing to the economy
0
sorcerer.013mo ago
dudjbdj retard of the day my lord
0
8GF6793mo ago
2+ let's go!
0
0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-17736838669613mo ago
perps: 00jbvof3
0
0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-17736838669613mo ago
Perps Code: 00jbvof3
0
hyper-liquid-xyz3mo ago
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cuts is in the table.
0

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Market opened Sep 29, 2025, 1:23 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$2,010

1 week volume

$8,571

1 month volume

$25,609

1 year volume

$3.3M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.0%

1h change

—

1 week change

—

1 month change

—

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0xfe28cb84a714b1a964290d7fd2587e71d57e905678c8ab64488449b24be78e52
Question ID:: 0xdcd7daabcacdc4ecf4f9a48d0a2708b52f356dd086c8070992136da62eb72b08

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.1%, No at 100.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$3.3M in total volume, with $2,010 in the last 24 hours and $272,790 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Sep 29, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.