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Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Active · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Yes probability

95.0%

24h change

-0.80%

Total volume

$8.4M

Liquidity

$214,019

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1895.0%5.0%

Outcomes

Yes95.0%
No5.0%

Order book

Yes · 138 levels
BidsSize
  1. 95¢3,349
  2. 95¢3,550
  3. 95¢150
  4. 95¢22,397
  5. 95¢10,850
  6. 95¢30
  7. 94¢5,574
  8. 94¢2,094
AsksSize
  1. 95¢1,144
  2. 95¢338
  3. 95¢352
  4. 96¢50
  5. 96¢1,279
  6. 96¢2,540
  7. 96¢1,800
  8. 96¢541

  • RimROm6d ago

    What would make the committee accelerate rather than pause?👹

    0

  • Ozir20d ago

    Surprise coming 😂

    1

  • crshel21mo ago

    0 bps now and 15%, hmmm

    0

  • Linguine121mo ago

    Are people still looking for perps?

    0

  • Price03122d ago

    yes

    0

  • mkskstk11mo ago

    whats going on here?

    0

  • Stefnc1mo ago

    Changer la photo de Powell

    0

  • Jeffrey-Einstein1mo ago

    no, jerome is the king of the world

    0

  • toneth1mo ago

    They dont update that picture cause Jpow printer go Burrrr

    0

  • 0xD31e0f4637C081aB6B27274b11483fce638F541e-17625835082351mo ago

    If the Fed raises interest rates by 25 basis points and then cuts rates by 25 basis points, is this regarded as one rate cut?

    2

  • LA171mo ago

    yes

    1

  • Jeffrey-Einstein1mo ago

    wont happen in the same year, fed policy actions take anywhere between 8-12 months or even longer to realize their impact on the economy, therefore it would be premature to do anything until you see what your cuts or hikes are doing to the economy

    0

  • sorcerer.011mo ago

    dudjbdj retard of the day my lord

    0

  • 8GF6791mo ago

    2+ let's go!

    0

  • 0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-17736838669612mo ago

    perps: 00jbvof3

    0

  • 0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-17736838669612mo ago

    Perps Code: 00jbvof3

    0

  • hyper-liquid-xyz2mo ago

    Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cuts is in the table.

    0

  • hyper-liquid-xyz2mo ago

    Soft CPI print would allow for possible rate cut in Oct/Dec with QT to offset it

    0

  • Cryptostradamus2mo ago

    12+ let's go! I told you guys. This year is not gonna end well for the worlds economy and then the Fed will have no other choice.

    0

  • chessbot1mo ago

    You will lose so much money and I will just get to sit back and see it happend

    0

  • Cryptostradamus1mo ago

    How can I lose "so much money". I put only 7.5$. My avg price is 0.3c. If I win, I'll make 2500$. It's an asymmetric bet and I have a good chance of winning it because I know what's coming this fall.

    0

  • chessbot1mo ago

    Alright, well that $7.5 is gone then... They aren't cutting in 2026. The projections suggest potential cuts in 2027 however

    0

  • Cryptostradamus1mo ago

    Projections don't matter. Look at what happened at the start of covid. They made two emergency meetings and dropped interest rates to zero immediately. That's what happens when the system threatens to crash and it will happen again.

    0

  • Cryptostradamus1mo ago

    Also looking at your past performance, always betting on No, nothing bad is ever gonna happen, hasn't brought you too much success. No offense.

    0

  • chessbot1mo ago

    Uhm, actually the betting on No's has been a recent strategy switch which has been quite profitable as thankfully there exists delusional people like yourself. For the moment there are no markets where I have any tangible advantage so I just hold some relatively safe bets

    0

  • Cryptostradamus1mo ago

    If I'm so delusional, then why am I up 4x on my account since I started polymarket last February, while you're down badly?

    0

  • chessbot1mo ago

    You are a very good boy

    1

  • Cryptostradamus2mo ago

    You guys don't know what's coming. Economies are going to collapse this fall. Interest rates will drop to zero. 12+ will give me a 300x return.

    0

  • GJUIIO682mo ago

    ye s s

    0

  • gh9876452mo ago

    Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed signals make zero or one 2026 rate cut the most plausible outcome

    0

  • 000x0002mo ago

    odds can shift pretty quickly

    1

  • hyper-liquid-xyz2mo ago

    Watch Warsh would say policy is neutral then start rate cuts with QT

    0

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Market opened Sep 29, 2025, 1:23 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$24,421

1 week volume

$195,720

1 month volume

$1.1M

1 year volume

$8.4M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

83.1%

1h change

—

1 week change

+2.10%

1 month change

+9.80%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0xd4e77ba6f29fc093509d24f508631abd445ecf506bbdc9c4c80e60256a318527
Question ID:
0xdcd7daabcacdc4ecf4f9a48d0a2708b52f356dd086c8070992136da62eb72b00

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 95.0%, No at 5.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$8.4M in total volume, with $24,421 in the last 24 hours and $214,019 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Dec 31, 2026. The market opened on Sep 29, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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