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Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?

Active · Ends Jul 1, 2027

No probability

58.5%

24h change

-1.50%

Total volume

$48,917

Liquidity

$4,087

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 241.0%58.5%

Outcomes

Yes41.5%
No58.5%

Order book

Yes · 38 levels
BidsSize
  1. 40¢10
  2. 39¢198
  3. 36¢55
  4. 35¢20
  5. 33¢21
  6. 32¢47
  7. 30¢100
  8. 21¢20
AsksSize
  1. 43¢797
  2. 44¢452
  3. 45¢49
  4. 46¢382
  5. 47¢78
  6. 48¢52
  7. 50¢36
  8. 51¢65

  • spxtest3h ago

    @iutwpfal you know that it’ll either stay below 1470 or won't even show up on the leaderboard until the event end. you'll keep scooping up shares until there are no more orders left.

    0

  • spxtest3h ago

    If it has not yet appeared on the leaderboard this week,I'm absolutely certain you're an insider.

    0

  • iutwpfal1h ago

    It'll get added at some point I'm sure. Have you tried the model?

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod7h ago

    u guys got farmed , kimi 3.1 isnt in text arena at all

    0

  • politode7h ago

    Bruh July 30 2027 , is end date for debut K3.1 pro is listing today from what I see in arena voting

    0

  • WaterFloww6h ago

    u mean WE GOT FARMED

    0

  • spxtest12h ago

    stop trading and placinsg orders. we all know that Kimi 3.1 has shown significant improvements on other benchmark sites. unlike the previous GPT Astra, the architecture of Kimi 3.1 is based on Kimi 3 with optimized performance. Theoretically, it shouldn't score lower than 1476. If textarena scores lower than 1476 this time, it is absolutely insider trading

    1

  • politode7h ago

    i tried text arena, i am not getting k3.1 pro at all, looks like they are not even testing it there

    0

  • spxtest7h ago

    Kimi3 score has surpassed all GPT models. Kimi 3 was also distilled from GPT, and OpenAI confirmed Moonshot's relevant accounts back in July. While distillation only provided certain advanced capabilities, its foundational capabilities were trained by Moonshot itself.

    0

  • politode7h ago

    live text leaderboard seems to favour kimi more it have been pumping steadily, at labs kimi is 5th

    0

  • iutwpfal7h ago

    Stop yapping and put some real money up

    1

  • spxtest6h ago

    you are arena insder,im not fool

    0

  • iutwpfal6h ago

    Apparently you are.

    1

  • spxtest20h ago

    Why hasn't the result been announced yet? It's already been over a week. My only guess is that they are waiting for Arena insider to buy enough chips before announcing it

    0

  • KavenSky20h ago

    I think the result will be announced this week, the only reason for the delay must be poor performance.

    0

  • iutwpfal20h ago

    Stop it man, I'm not an insider.

    1

  • spxtest18h ago

    no,kimi3.1 work well

    0

  • WaterFloww21h ago

    fuck this markets full of insiders just milking ocasional traders

    0

  • iutwpfal4h ago

    There's not been any super obvious arena insiders afaik

    0

  • WaterFloww4h ago

    thats what an insider say

    0

  • iutwpfal1h ago

    Okay I'm an insider

    0

  • iutwpfal1h ago

    I'm looking at the score right now it's currently 1498 but I'm changing it to 1468 muhahaha

    0

  • spxtest1d ago

    @iutwpfal you get some insider tips，it's not fair trade. 😭

    0

  • KavenSky1d ago

    really?

    0

  • spxtest1d ago

    he don't invest that much money without some certainty,otherwise, it just doesn't make sense,we lose

    0

  • iutwpfal1d ago

    Nope

    0

  • politode1d ago

    did 3.1 pro list in lm arena ? logically it make no sense it couldn't hit 1470+ since K3 hit 1476

    0

  • spxtest22h ago

    he get some insider tips,it will Below 1470

    0

  • spxtest3d ago

    🤣why sold NO? dont worry,you'll win @iutwpfal

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod3d ago

    any final words before u lose to ozy

    0

  • spxtest2d ago

    haha,1485-1495,you'll win

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod2d ago

    u still didnt understand didnt u

    0

  • iutwpfal2d ago

    Dont jinx it Im nervous

    0

  • iutwpfal5d ago

    Loving the discourse guys but I want fills

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod5d ago

    Never bet against isurwpfal

    0

  • spxtest5d ago

    you should consider this， if he believes the result is no, why doesn't he fill more 1480 or 1490 ? it's easy money.

    0

  • iutwpfal5d ago

    i sused u r write poetry for a living

    2

  • iutwpfal5d ago

    Because I'm not that sure :p

    0

  • iutwpfal5d ago

    I put up more for a couple of hours please LMarena don't fuck me with the fastclick

    0

  • spxtest5d ago

    The arena is based on double-blind testing, rather than on negative sentiment found online. webdev and agent score, Kimi 3.1 shows huge improvement. Kimi 3.1 is built upon Kimi 3; while the architecture remains unchanged, its performance has been optimized. Theoretically, its rating should not be lower than that of Kimi 3.🤣🤣

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod5d ago

    Wow is this your first time?

    0

  • spxtest5d ago

    no,i just say the fact

    0

  • ithinkthisisgod5d ago

    spx you are betting against a legendry trade who was never wrong about debut

    0

  • KavenSky5d ago

    But GPT 6 Astra has low performance in text arena

    0

  • spxtest5d ago

    Yes, I know,I lost that one. Astra architecture underwent changes, and it was an open test. Kimi 3.1, on the other hand, was tested prior to its release; its architecture remained the same, with only performance optimizations and enhancements. This time, the odds of me winning are much higher.1490 has chance

    0

  • iutwpfal4d ago

    I've been wrong a couple times (Opus 4.6, Opus 5) but I'm on a hot streak so I'm experimenting with bigger size

    0

  • spxtest6d ago

    @iutwpfal it's funny buddy..you order has filled,haha🤣，do you feel better now?

    0

  • iutwpfal6d ago

    Yeaaaah yes I do

    0

  • iutwpfal6d ago

    Finally something fun

    0

  • iutwpfal6d ago

    Put up a couple big orders. Gone in a couple hours as i don't wanna get fastclicked

    0

  • spxtest6d ago

    funny，why did you buy YES and merge it? You were just trying to manipulate the price and cash out with a profit, but there wasn't enough liquidity

    0

  • iutwpfal6d ago

    Sure thing brother now fill my orders

    0

  • iutwpfal6d ago

    I take orders of all sizes, fuck me up

    0

  • spxtest6d ago

    funny,haha,do you know what is risk?

    0

  • iutwpfal5d ago

    More risk more fun

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Market opened Oct 24, 2026, 3:31 AM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$3,069

1 week volume

$43,059

1 month volume

$48,917

1 year volume

$48,917

Spread

3.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

99.3%

1h change

+1.00%

1 week change

-27.50%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xf09c6ec32d669912ecd752437167db7124e24b13dc33345f04fcd39c3bd5bee0
Question ID:
0x97a0ae29f135b6d82a46ac492f62fd2def16b8aab58f525ec85cd3f41d0a693f

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Moonshot AI Kimi K3.1 Pro model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro (released October 23, 2026), including its Highspeed variant, listed under a name or model identifier that includes "Kimi" and "K3.1", regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, or reasoning or effort labels. For example, Kimi K3.1 Pro, Kimi K3.1 Pro Highspeed, or kimi-k3.1-pro, including with a label such as "(Max)" or "(High)", would qualify, while other models, such as Kimi K3 (Max), Kimi K2.8 Preview, or any later Kimi version, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere. A model marked "AutoEval" will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the "AutoEval" label will be considered. If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model's first appearance will not be considered. If a model is first added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard but is subsequently removed and not re-added, such that it is not displayed on the leaderboard at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following its first appearance, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

What are the current odds?

Yes at 41.5%, No at 58.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$48,917 in total volume, with $3,069 in the last 24 hours and $4,087 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jul 1, 2027. The market opened on Oct 24, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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