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Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes probability

95.3%

24h change

+5.25%

Total volume

$24,567

Liquidity

$6,003

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 295.3%4.8%

Outcomes

Yes95.3%
No4.8%

Order book

Yes · 57 levels
BidsSize
  1. 94¢40
  2. 94¢53
  3. 94¢22
  4. 94¢225
  5. 94¢60
  6. 94¢710
  7. 93¢258
  8. 93¢428
AsksSize
  1. 96¢40
  2. 96¢42
  3. 97¢601
  4. 97¢630
  5. 97¢101
  6. 97¢67
  7. 97¢320
  8. 98¢220

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Market opened Oct 23, 2026, 1:56 AM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$3,263

1 week volume

$10,552

1 month volume

$24,567

1 year volume

$24,567

Spread

2.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

83.0%

1h change

+0.15%

1 week change

+20.25%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x7eafa176e845831938ac066392de40969de846fa7ecc7b3ae784a918135e7cf7
Question ID:
0x257150e879c64e3bb90346f2074fe6737ef064a813522d9cef2e21921fc54564

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 95.3%, No at 4.8% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$24,567 in total volume, with $3,263 in the last 24 hours and $6,003 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Oct 23, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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