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Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

55.5%

24h change

-13.00%

Total volume

$18,985

Liquidity

$2,165

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 244.5%55.5%

Outcomes

Yes44.5%
No55.5%

Order book

Yes · 38 levels
BidsSize
  1. 44¢81
  2. 43¢1,173
  3. 42¢82
  4. 41¢50
  5. 40¢160
  6. 39¢152
  7. 38¢112
  8. 37¢497
AsksSize
  1. 45¢163
  2. 46¢1,320
  3. 47¢82
  4. 48¢370
  5. 49¢50
  6. 51¢50
  7. 52¢200
  8. 54¢171

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Market opened Oct 23, 2026, 1:28 AM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$2,482

1 week volume

$15,881

1 month volume

$18,985

1 year volume

$18,985

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

99.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

-12.50%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x240a543e8137917193717da1217bc549cd9c5b35a92dd03e427e0637e5ad6d27
Question ID:
0x6c30128d13ef729bf4004b035d85d8bfd6d17f44c6cb90d9fcd18cc7bae61ea8

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 44.5%, No at 55.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$18,985 in total volume, with $2,482 in the last 24 hours and $2,165 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Oct 23, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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