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Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 16, 2026

Yes probability

79.0%

24h change

+8.00%

Total volume

$114,962

Liquidity

$3,413

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 279.0%21.0%

Outcomes

Yes79.0%
No21.0%

Order book

Yes · 41 levels
BidsSize
  1. 78¢12
  2. 77¢77
  3. 75¢55
  4. 68¢20
  5. 66¢20
  6. 65¢15
  7. 64¢204
  8. 57¢5
AsksSize
  1. 80¢121
  2. 81¢60
  3. 82¢62
  4. 86¢5
  5. 87¢30
  6. 90¢5
  7. 92¢192
  8. 94¢58

  • issaisking20d ago

    ez money

    0

  • Contentious-Dinnerdate18d ago

    you have an imposter

    0

  • chessplayer11d ago

    😂

    1

  • issaisking5d ago

    ready?

    0

  • chessplayer2d ago

    Yes

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    training cancelled. no astra in 2026. just check on google

    0

  • issaisking20d ago

    yeah right openai is gonna let everybody party and sit this one out.... prepare to go to school

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    they are developing oher model

    0

  • Contentious-Dinnerdate20d ago

    why assume they'll drop the Astra name

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    I'm not assuming they'll drop the Astra name. The issue is timing. The planned 6.1 release was canceled over safety concerns, not just delayed. A replacement needs to pass evaluations and launch publicly. no evidence justifies a 91% probability of that happening imo

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    I may be wrong, but i think at least 50-50 it would be. keeping humble

    0

  • Contentious-Dinnerdate20d ago

    they have over two and a half months

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    Yes, but do you think 90% justifies? They are developing other models in paralel...

    0

  • issaisking19d ago

    did you hear the news?

    0

  • chessplayer19d ago

    Did you?

    0

  • chessplayer11d ago

    🤷🏻‍♂️

    0

  • issaisking27d ago

    ez money lads

    2

  • chessplayer23d ago

    💀

    0

  • issaisking21d ago

    ready?

    0

  • chessplayer11d ago

    🌩

    0

  • wildboar0829d ago

    tibo has announced it's coming soon folks...

    1

  • Waterfall29d ago

    6.1 sol ultrafast, he made the precision later

    0

  • Rainless20d ago

    you was right bro

    0

  • m.herrera1mo ago

    Anthropic releasing Opus 5.5, surely made that OpenAI accelerate the process to release 6.1 Astra

    1

  • Rainless1mo ago

    🤣

    0

  • AsianRock1mo ago

    wassup

    0

  • 0x0F295cF8854fec13c2Be6e9Be73EaB5C3e36A39e-17764526037791mo ago

    ss

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Oct 20, 2026, 11:01 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$9,378

1 week volume

$108,239

1 month volume

$114,962

1 year volume

$114,962

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

92.2%

1h change

-2.00%

1 week change

+38.50%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x5f7763c65b6cd52c991eb94266a77aa20fb9ce3897304ebd372437a808d2df2f
Question ID:
0x5f0096f4e5e6055130edd11a56af261c490a7447bca7c9c5f13ec3b7f47d9dac

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 79.0%, No at 21.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$114,962 in total volume, with $9,378 in the last 24 hours and $3,413 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 16, 2026. The market opened on Oct 20, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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