Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?

Active · Ends Oct 28, 2026

No probability

100.0%

24h change

—

Total volume

$30,593

Liquidity

$25,213

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes0.1%

No100.0%

TheMogger723h ago
wallahi why is gadi so high? Neither party will form a coalition with arab parties. Netanyahu should be way higher than 8%
0
Ariel399394d ago
Do people here even saw the results?
2
0x09d2808f2bb35f98CEE9D106997b5F04A910A3aC-17588072393075d ago
Go, Gadi, go!
1
0x2890a4DFD81c7a136b1Ca266b4Da650915436Cec-17104533472605d ago
Bibi today, Bibi tomorrow, Bibi forever
2
TheMogger725d ago
Netanyahu currently in lead with most seats. He will most definitely receive first mandate. May god bless us with another term from bibi
2
0x29A6382f7eD83731a37E2F0B8DAD4008CFc84d98-17752324807735d ago
The guy who ignored half a dozen clear warnings about the October 7th attacks should not remain PM. Also he is avoiding doing an inquiry into the October 7th security failures because he knows he will be implicated
0
TheMogger724d ago
Don't care 😂 he's still most popular in Israel considering Knesset results. Couldn't care less about him, he makes us money. More war = more opportunities. Made a fat bag on oil a few months ago thanks to Iran, USA and netanyahu
0
TheMogger726d ago
If the knesset results are close, netanyahu will receive first mandate. It is much easier for him to form a coalition than Eizenkot. Inshallah netanyahu wins
1
0x29A6382f7eD83731a37E2F0B8DAD4008CFc84d98-17752324807735d ago
insha'Allah Netanyahu goes to jail for bribery 👍
0
TheMogger724d ago
Looks like someones angry
0

Rules

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Oct 19, 2026, 8:20 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$26,500

1 week volume

$29,311

1 month volume

$29,650

1 year volume

$29,650

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.0%

1h change

—

1 week change

-1.10%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0x5c68ee85080b47434b01f42bbd93881ff286c07be7fc444dad5b4b3db369a059
Question ID:: 0xf96e02cd74328e8092efe7220551ab62f8a013ba05c9fc37e2e09f3e5d563305

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Avigdor Lieberman receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?" prediction market?

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the first individual who is officially tasked with forming a government after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.1%, No at 100.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$30,593 in total volume, with $26,500 in the last 24 hours and $25,213 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Oct 28, 2026. The market opened on Oct 19, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.