Back to markets

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

98.0%

24h change

+0.10%

Total volume

$45.5M

Liquidity

$333,742

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 21.9%98.0%

Outcomes

Yes1.9%
No98.0%

Order book

Yes · 173 levels
BidsSize
  1. 2¢6,319
  2. 2¢10,747
  3. 2¢54,630
  4. 2¢13,217
  5. 2¢28,290
  6. 1¢14,459
  7. 1¢26,878
  8. 1¢135,333
AsksSize
  1. 2¢10,677
  2. 2¢48,836
  3. 2¢16,371
  4. 2¢22,547
  5. 2¢10,163
  6. 3¢6,691
  7. 3¢5,000
  8. 3¢15,240

  • 0x64AA3F2869DE45F6121f6760288432D19681E774-17633113873175mo ago

    Latest surveys not reflected here

    0

  • 0x64AA3F2869DE45F6121f6760288432D19681E774-17633113873175mo ago

    Latest surveys not reflected here.

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Market opened Jul 24, 2025, 10:43 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$35,516

1 week volume

$497,902

1 month volume

$2.3M

1 year volume

$44.8M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.2%

1h change

—

1 week change

—

1 month change

-0.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4
Question ID:
0xe72b35a076bbf5faadce08a003836f45214d4b8443a35cddbf30457d064a464c

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 1.9%, No at 98.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$45.5M in total volume, with $35,516 in the last 24 hours and $333,742 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Jul 24, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

Related markets