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2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

No probability

82.5%

24h change

-6.00%

Total volume

$7.5M

Liquidity

$2.3M

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 217.5%82.5%

Outcomes

Yes17.5%
No82.5%

Order book

Yes · 69 levels
BidsSize
  1. 17¢60,576
  2. 16¢556,515
  3. 15¢3,017,462
  4. 14¢38,692
  5. 13¢1,005
  6. 12¢844
  7. 11¢210
  8. 10¢33
AsksSize
  1. 18¢19,065
  2. 19¢517,808
  3. 20¢65,373
  4. 21¢16,780
  5. 22¢1,079
  6. 23¢26,791
  7. 24¢121,501
  8. 25¢802,795

  • Bezobrazov14h ago

    Free money if you vote No on Republican Sweep. Take care boys.

    6

  • Voland67776h ago

    Update: Kansas - flipped, now dems sweep is free money also.

    3

  • 0x9AB04b6B4A6D4F40d4b80445d002C514eB48cc20-17688479656426h ago

    腐败的特朗普会迎来最终的审判

    1

  • 26016961015h ago

    I don't get the political astroturfing in the comments. Most of us here aren't American.

    1

  • JustTheFacts18h ago

    New - Generic Ballot poll 🔵 Democrats 56% (+15) 🔴 Republicans 41% Atlas Intel (A) - 11/1

    1

  • JustTheFacts18h ago

    Bro how is this only 71 percent Dems

    1

  • Loyalty-Crash5h ago

    you'd be surprised for how little you could buy that position in July/August especially

    1

  • FreeMoney222h ago

    Even for us right wing voters Trump is going down as worst President in USA history. Made USA and American citizens hated around the world. All countries are working together to be non dependent on us in 10 years. Thats without the orange monster filling his own pockets every single day openly.

    10

  • FSD1920h ago

    You sound exactly like a demrat filled with hatred and lies. Why do you have to pretend a right wing? Trump will be the greatest President in our life no matter how much you hate him. What a low life you are.

    15

  • SamuraiStevo4h ago

    You have no money down so your opinion is irrelevant, back your truth and throw some money down otherwise be quiet.

    0

  • FSD193h ago

    You human trash got to shut up! This is American site. You'd better shut your dirty mouth up.

    4

  • bowcap0041h ago

    Yes sir. Trump exposing Asia + Europe not investable longterm. USA will milk residual capital formation next 10 years… not Germany, France of China.

    0

  • Vyt06irneeth1d ago

    It seеms to mе that the Demоcrats will win in аll the districts

    4

  • Kamirnornore62n1d ago

    аnd even stunvо is confident that this will haррen. Their analysis calculatеs a 99% chance of this оutcome coming to pаss

    0

  • Dmitry5001d ago

    if ... well, US become Nicaragua , it banana democratic paradise

    0

  • VincentClerc2d ago

    Russia's cyberbots are flooding the comments area

    8

  • gotonetry332d ago

    а еще, мы следим за тобой

    4

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-177386515187718h ago

    Bad ruski, no donut

    0

  • JustTheFacts3d ago

    The New Woke Order is close.

    0

  • prediqtor3d ago

    The leftists are coming guys. Society is doomed. Get ready for a constant barrage of pro-woke propaganda in the media. Stay safe and keep your kids safe.

    7

  • cryptonesiac3d ago

    would be nice for a change. down with the orange turd

    15

  • AnEggplant3d ago

    Good.

    3

  • arvinlleva943d ago

    The democrats can do well in the future if they adjust their messaging back to the "workers" and adopt populist messaging but they'll have to avoid the woke shit and tread delicately on trans issues if they want to retain power. Wokeness is dying.

    1

  • JustTheFacts3d ago

    Depends. When the economy sucks, all people want is an alternative. Trans issues aren't even a top 10 priority.

    4

  • FreeMoney222h ago

    Have been right wing all my life. But this corrupt openly self filling pocket orange monster needs to go.

    0

  • JustTheFacts3d ago

    They might call the Senate for the Dems this weekend

    0

  • JustTheFacts6d ago

    Dems sweep dropping when they extend leads in Michigan and Texas........

    0

  • arvinlleva946d ago

    Do you feel my power growing?

    8

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-17738651518776d ago

    a little but then it plummets come next Tuesday

    0

  • arvinlleva946d ago

    I am grateful you will be there to witness by becoming.

    3

  • jaudnerlovesjesus5d ago

    Extending their lead according to who ? Most of the money on prediction markets is either from leftists or people under 40. 50 year old MAGA Republicans aren't betting here.

    5

  • JustTheFacts5d ago

    You are a fool. Right wing crypto bros throwing their money away is what made these sites popular. Just look at the comments- real left wing dominated hahahahah

    1

  • Casablanca15d ago

    You commie bot keep posing the messages from your CCP boss. Tell us how much you get paid for each of your comments?

    5

  • SamuraiStevo5d ago

    Bro is down 8k talking about power

    1

  • arvinlleva944d ago

    The money is lost or gained once the midterms are over or I sell the position.

    2

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-17738651518773d ago

    no

    0

  • buyrightbake6d ago

    Other site (Yalshi) has Margin of Victory odds for every senate and house race. Like "Husted +6%, Yes/No." Why would I bet here?

    3

  • Bravo4147d ago

    How could Other happen? Election postponed, or partially conducted?

    1

  • Tako-Tacos3d ago

    Marshall law ... If war were declared.

    2

  • Bravo4141d ago

    What if only in one state? And election not conducted there. What would be the outcome?

    1

  • 0x29f25fee6Bc2719F0A71AF3c327c385E72B8d5a5-17760676935927d ago

    the polls have underestimated r's in presidential elections but underestimated dems in primaries and in recent non presidential elections. A big part of the mistakes around the pres. elections has to do with a total failure of both parties to understand and weight latinos properly. relatively speaking a 60-65% chance of winning is not that safe so who knows..I think there is just as good, at least,chance of underestimating the dems. than the other way around..

    0

  • JustTheFacts10d ago

    Insider Advantage missed by 6 pts last midterms, overestimating the GOP, and has all Dems ahead

    1

  • Casablanca19d ago

    Commie bot.

    7

  • JustTheFacts9d ago

    Cope, check RCP's scorecard

    1

  • Loyalty-Crash9d ago

    why do you comment so much when you have no skin in the game, it's pathetic whatever your opinion

    7

  • DanaW19d ago

    Good question. The CCP bot makes money by posting the comments from his dictator boss.

    6

  • JustTheFacts9d ago

    My money is on the US polymarket. I still like this site better though.

    0

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-17738651518776d ago

    They did pretty good with the michigan midterms though

    0

  • 0xea4f87e88E2240F18E6aDbD90e789bf19Ce78588-17738651518776d ago

    I meant they did pretty good in the michigan senate election last time

    0

  • jaudnerlovesjesus10d ago

    Manipulated money by Democrats attempting to suppress votes. Won't work. Paxton has now surged ahead in Texas early voting. Polls have consistently been wrong on Republicans. Prediction markets create uncertainty but the same principle applies, they're proving wrong on MAGA.

    9

  • Loyalty-Crash10d ago

    That is wishful thinking on your part. You can see in my betting history that my biggest wins were Trump to win every swing state and the popular vote in 2024, so it's not like I am a Dem shill. But Trump betrayed essential parts of the 2024 coalition he forged by going to war and covering up for the Epstein class, therefore he will feel the consequences in a historical Midterm loss. He won't just lose House and Senate, he will lose those badly. 47 or less seats easily. And I put my money where my mouth is.

    8

  • blaga9510d ago

    Then put money where your mouth is.

    3

  • 0x754Fc065c685948f6E640AB004207cF719e12A4E-17760703831299d ago

    >Paxton has now surged ahead in Texas early voting The results aren't even out yet xdddd and you calling it like they just started counting. You're delusional

    2

  • AAAnonymous12d ago

    They're selling dollars for 64c, no brainer the Dems are sweeping this.

    8

  • JustTheFacts12d ago

    Good luck getting Trump polling error without Trump. Last midterms polls overstimated the GOP.

    0

  • JustTheFacts12d ago

    Yah I would buy Dem sweep it's going into the 80 cent range soon

    0

  • Parliament11d ago

    Good, now bet on that

    2

  • drachenlord171011d ago

    that makes no sence at all but ok

    0

  • JustTheFacts11d ago

    A bot deleted its post after my reply. The point is, midterm polling has underestimated Dems.

    0

  • GoldenDome1210d ago

    You are a true bot with $0. Just shut up, you stupid bot.

    5

  • Loyalty-Crash9d ago

    You really should, you know

    0

  • 0x998B3AD9Fc8219F4A9EF374196fFbb690832Db96-177620138346412d ago

    How come there's so many comments of accounts made in April and March with 0 trades commenting and liking eachothers comments?

    6

  • excellentPanda12d ago

    I've been watching this for months, although never bet on anything on Polymarket or had an account until now. It's been a bit wild over the last week or two, just a ton of new comments mostly anti-dem/pro-rep. Gotta be botnets mostly, it was striking. Putin's part of the diesel quid pro quo 😂.

    3

  • drachenlord171011d ago

    these are mostly from Russia. Every time Ukraine hits a Yandex Datacenter these comments stop

    3

  • Loyalty-Crash9d ago

    There's an option at the top of the comment section to only view comments by holders. Should be the default option honestly

    0

  • CUSTOMIZE17h ago

    true

    0

  • JustTheFacts13d ago

    Bloomberg doesn't drop big money unless he is going to win

    0

  • JustTheFacts13d ago

    No one cares about one of the richest guys in the world?

    0

  • JustTheFacts13d ago

    Musk isn't even an American

    1

  • redftrsdgf14d ago

    so much bots in these comments LOL

    9

  • Loyalty-Crash9d ago

    I don't see you betting here either

    1

Rules

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jul 11, 2025, 8:47 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 9:25 PM

Market data

24h volume

$392,995

1 week volume

$2.2M

1 month volume

$5M

1 year volume

$7.4M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

90.4%

1h change

—

1 week change

-9.00%

1 month change

-11.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x998bc71817b2d76921d1999ce0f3431cfd5945583667a371280ca2b430b0c06e
Question ID:
0x7b95a46fc059d27ac3404325fd6280974d96949102201de57b8595f802d7fc02

Frequently asked questions

What is the "2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate and the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chambers. For determining Senate control, all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For determining House control, all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 17.5%, No at 82.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$7.5M in total volume, with $392,995 in the last 24 hours and $2.3M of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Jul 11, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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