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Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Active · Ends Nov 8, 2028

No probability

97.3%

24h change

+0.20%

Total volume

$11.4M

Liquidity

$806,357

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 22.8%97.3%

Outcomes

Yes2.8%
No97.3%

Order book

Yes · 129 levels
BidsSize
  1. 3¢10,376
  2. 3¢313
  3. 3¢25,266
  4. 2¢16,080
  5. 2¢5,000
  6. 2¢429
  7. 2¢7,000
  8. 2¢17,604
AsksSize
  1. 3¢3,687
  2. 3¢12,528
  3. 3¢20,089
  4. 3¢20,000
  5. 3¢25,155
  6. 3¢6,010
  7. 3¢7,000
  8. 4¢25,756
  • ISMS22223d ago

    This slimy, fake-ass, skinwalker Gavin Newsom isn’t winning a fucking thing in 2028. Fuck the hype, fuck the political bullshit, and fuck the idea that he’s some inevitable nominee. GO JON OSSOFF! 🇺🇸

    1

  • 0xcF7eb75117117c5902cF213c16fea848E72a2808-172245827110216d ago

    Who actually has a convincing ground game?

    1

  • t1u221d ago

    Debate season will test these prices

    0

  • NotaJoe1mo ago

    USA

    13

  • Ulve130kkaikelex1mo ago

    Tim Walz odds are shifting fast, 2 shares hold

    5

  • drachenlord17101mo ago

    do people sleep on Tim?

    7

  • Tony61Montana1mo ago

    Josh Shapiro easy choice: 1) Jewish 2) Wins at Pennsylvania which is a key state for presidency 3) Raised in a US Navy base 4) Old enough not to be inexperienced but also young enough not to be a dinosaur 5) Ex Attorney General of Pennsylvania... 6) Was attacked for being jewish--> In April 2025, Shapiro and his family survived an arson attack at the governor's mansion, hours after holding a Passover Seder. Very easy choice, trading super low for the potential it has.

    5

  • siick25d ago

    The democrat party is extremely desperate to win back the elements of the jewish lobby that joined the GOP after Oct 7. They have been getting absolutely murdered in funding ever since. They want moderate to reassure the donors, and a Jewish moderate is even better

    1

  • CKAB1mo ago

    Georgia is the Pennsylvania of 2028. It's clearly Ossoff.

    1

  • ISMS22221mo ago

    Don’t be scared of something that’s becoming increasingly obvious. Your mind will play tricks on you and make you overthink it, but this guy is the guy. Total package

    0

  • CKAB1mo ago

    It won't even matter if they have to give a senate seat to run him because the Dems will have like 55 secure seats at that point from Trump's incompetence and unpopularity.

    0

  • ISMS22221mo ago

    History shows that after a chaotic presidency, a steady leader can be exactly what the country wants. Gerald Ford followed Nixon and Watergate. Calvin Coolidge followed an administration engulfed in scandal. Eisenhower followed years of war and political tension under Truman. None was known for daily drama; each offered a calmer style. “Boring” can be a political strength when voters are exhausted. Calm, competent and predictable can sound pretty good after chaos.

    0

  • silurian10d ago

    Gerald Ford wasn't elected

    0

  • JoJojO-6901mo ago

    A crowded field could help the candidate with the most committed base

    0

  • 0xc681414822F6b908ff19461882D518722D891296-17814645986391mo ago

    ...

    0

  • wantbehappy1mo ago

    Kamala Harris not have a change guys why so high?

    0

  • CKAB1mo ago

    Because 2020, 2024, and appearing with El-Sayed recently

    0

  • Golmand1mo ago

    My crystal ball endorsed absolutely nobody💥

    1

  • Empiotreus1mo ago

    Once James Talarico wins Texas, his odds will grow :)

    0

  • CKAB1mo ago

    He's not going to run for prez after being a senator for basically 1.5 years max, bro.

    1

  • cocos2281mo ago

    @hugewinner buy more

    0

  • Hugewinner1mo ago

    why not

    1

  • cocos2281mo ago

    i listed yes shares if u wanna buy

    0

  • 0xAe8739813B024631B3769E8788464795EE70d629-17764569874931mo ago

    Kelly is still obviously underpriced at 3 cents.

    1

  • snimuslivo4ki1mo ago

    we need 40 cent yes?

    0

  • MaxShorter1mo ago

    Taking a position on Kamala harris ~ 8c, got limits through 7 and will add as we get closer to 2028. Thesis: Kamala is leading on virtually every 2028 poll, market consensus is that her lead will narrow as we get closer and other nominess get exposure, but I don't think thats the case. Firstly, the dems field is terrible, the nomination is there for the taking but nobody stands out. Newsom is uninspiring, AOC is a liability, Ossoff is closest but he’s not bridging the gap enough to the left as I’d like. Secondly, Kamala has the credibility, donor machine, and is most prepared for a presidential campaign. The biggest elephant in the room is that she lost 2024 and nobody will trust her again, but she was up against the greatest political machine of our generation - MAGA. Trump will not be running in 28, the likely opp is Vance or Rubio and neither have the strength or credibility that trump did last election

    1

  • MaxShorter1mo ago

    I remember vividly in 21 trump odds of winning the 2024 nominee were trading below 2c. The odds off the presidency much lower Everyone thought he was done after January 6th, impossible they said . The market had fatigue and bet on desantis and Hayley. He led all the polls, market didn’t care. Then he announced, yet price barely reacted , then he beat all the cases, and they finally fell in line. Then he won it all I feel similar fatigue is present with Kamala, the market desperately want someone new but the gods won’t give it. History often doesn’t repeat but it usually rhymes

    1

  • 0xAe8739813B024631B3769E8788464795EE70d629-17764569874931mo ago

    She had her shot. Very unlikely she gets another. "the dems field is terrible" well you're entitled to your opinion, but I don't think the democractic voters think so. Frankly, I suspect a lot of people will be hesitant to nominate a woman again in this cycle, fair or not.

    1

  • CKAB1mo ago

    The polls are meaningless right now and she's only leading in them because of inertia.

    0

  • CKAB1mo ago

    They'd be right to. America still is not ready for a woman president.

    0

  • mrtrump1mo ago

    donors want a white male

    3

  • bananajamsamin1mo ago

    are you shure?

    0

  • ocpna1mo ago

    AES?

    0

  • crypto-basenji1mo ago

    I locked in Ossof because I know how dumb are leftists and they will choose that moron

    1

  • CKAB1mo ago

    Ossoff owns

    0

  • ISMS22222mo ago

    Keep an eye on Jon Ossoff after November. • $42M Senate war chest — federal money that can potentially move into a presidential campaign after Georgia. • ~90% of his current ad budget reportedly running outside Georgia. • Spending only $5–6M/month while reportedly bringing in more than he’s spending. • Gavin Newsom can’t simply transfer his California state campaign war chest into a federal presidential campaign. • Mark Kelly sits behind Ossoff at roughly $26M in federal cash. And here’s the interesting part: 📊 Ossoff’s presidential odds relative to his Democratic-nomination odds imply roughly a 70% chance of winning the presidency IF he becomes the nominee — stronger than the comparable implied number for the other candidates. $42M. National advertising. Positive cash flow. Maybe it’s all about Georgia. Maybe.

    1

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Market opened Jul 3, 2025, 8:37 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:09 PM

Market data

24h volume

$130,989

1 week volume

$213,350

1 month volume

$642,168

1 year volume

$11.4M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

+0.20%

1 month change

+0.20%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0xb91be12388b3d4079c3ed9b5783cb42d8c33051d37746a49300227e0f45fc089
Question ID:
0x2c3d7e0eee6f058be3006baabf0d54a07da254ba47fe6e3e095e7990c781472b

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 2.8%, No at 97.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$11.4M in total volume, with $130,989 in the last 24 hours and $806,357 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 8, 2028. The market opened on Jul 11, 2025.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.