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Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2028

No probability

74.0%

24h change

-0.50%

Total volume

$139,561

Liquidity

$17,397

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 226.0%73.0%

Outcomes

Yes26.0%
No74.0%

Order book

Yes · 46 levels
BidsSize
  1. 26¢5
  2. 25¢143
  3. 24¢30
  4. 23¢140
  5. 18¢26
  6. 16¢5
  7. 15¢210
  8. 11¢3,280
AsksSize
  1. 29¢5
  2. 30¢110
  3. 31¢60
  4. 32¢66
  5. 33¢40
  6. 35¢220
  7. 49¢10
  8. 54¢15

  • Tezcatlipoca5mo ago

    MORE DATES

    0

  • NoSteinNoGate5mo ago

    This already happened practically, so either this should resolve YES or it basically can not resolve YES

    0

  • dooby5mo ago

    Those in position to orchestrate a coup are the very same folks in power.

    0

  • 0xg0r6mo ago

    Coup attempted by irgc

    0

  • Bromley866mo ago

    Quick, buy more YES!

    3

  • dumdumdumdum5mo ago

    yes, looks like they will coup themselves.

    0

  • Tezcatlipoca6mo ago

    More dates please

    0

  • GRIFONESPERANTO6mo ago

    Coup happening right now

    5

  • RooksD0007mo ago

    Hasn't this already been done by the IRGC versus the 'supreme leader'?

    5

  • RooksD0007mo ago

    yes, Very. beyond belief. and it's contagious so you better keep your distance

    7

  • crypto-basenji7mo ago

    More signals that the IRGC is cracking [link removed]

    1

  • crypto-basenji8mo ago

    More friction signals. Tic Tac… [link removed]

    1

  • Liebme8mo ago

    Get ready for Mossad agent qaani to launch α coup, succeed and then immediately surrender because he managed to pull off α Eli Cohen and trick the entire regime into thinking he’s actually apart of the irgc

    7

  • crypto-basenji8mo ago

    Tic Tac...

    0

  • EyeOfSauron-2308mo ago

    [link removed]

    0

  • khorzookhaan9mo ago

    [link removed]

    0

  • IranNuclearProgram9mo ago

    some mf just pumped this market

    2

  • 0x57b61439187FF8E08812cA0f8a95993b364EAaD1-17676548541129mo ago

    The Shah will surely get this started.

    6

  • NERA9mo ago

    [link removed]

    1

  • rez1119mo ago

    i am Iranian in Iran can me and my friends start a coup?😁

    14

  • nufonehudis679mo ago

    you need a go-fund me page and send the link to Trump

    5

  • SantaKlausSkeptic9mo ago

    how do we crowd fund this

    3

  • johnkop410mo ago

    Coup by whom? What other factions exist in Iran that have power on elite circles and want the regime gone?

    1

  • rez1119mo ago

    Hey i am Iranian in Iran can me and my friends start a coup?

    4

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Oct 9, 2026, 3:08 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$29,120

1 week volume

$29,726

1 month volume

$139,561

1 year volume

$139,561

Spread

4.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

94.6%

1h change

+1.50%

1 week change

-2.00%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x1f4a556c0c21678921abffeab9dfc175d5326c3e6d5cb3f61bb9558684d6b14f
Question ID:
0x80cf11022d491e126ffcec04bd35b417f7ecd4e080adf8d57b24c39104614cfb

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 26.0%, No at 74.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$139,561 in total volume, with $29,120 in the last 24 hours and $17,397 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2028. The market opened on Oct 9, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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