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Plague pandemic in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

98.3%

24h change

-0.40%

Total volume

$512,493

Liquidity

$64,970

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 21.8%98.3%

Outcomes

Yes1.8%
No98.3%

Order book

Yes · 60 levels
BidsSize
  1. 2¢232
  2. 2¢749
  3. 1¢45
  4. 1¢655
  5. 1¢3,555
  6. 1¢36,859
  7. 1¢15,178
  8. 1¢5,000
AsksSize
  1. 2¢145
  2. 2¢285
  3. 2¢462
  4. 2¢300
  5. 2¢100
  6. 3¢100
  7. 3¢200
  8. 3¢200

  • OTOMATIK27d ago

    Russian pneumonic outbreak... no no no not another Covid-19 😭

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Oct 5, 2026, 7:47 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:07 PM

Market data

24h volume

$214

1 week volume

$3,096

1 month volume

$512,493

1 year volume

$512,493

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.1%

1h change

—

1 week change

-0.20%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x9b5ff439175bd0bd854e0f7ea3a9c370ca9316d46c016d879b2d702300a84764
Question ID:
0x6142e3ba61e6fe6c1886d987b8cf8c9653112a7d45bbea4f9c258406ef7c3cae

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Plague pandemic in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 1.8%, No at 98.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$512,493 in total volume, with $214 in the last 24 hours and $64,970 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Oct 5, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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