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Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes probability

72.0%

24h change

+5.00%

Total volume

$128,368

Liquidity

$3,219

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 272.0%28.0%

Outcomes

Yes72.0%
No28.0%

Order book

Yes · 32 levels
BidsSize
  1. 71¢500
  2. 70¢437
  3. 68¢100
  4. 67¢246
  5. 66¢246
  6. 65¢246
  7. 64¢100
  8. 61¢5
AsksSize
  1. 73¢5
  2. 74¢757
  3. 75¢400
  4. 78¢100
  5. 79¢125
  6. 80¢100
  7. 82¢100
  8. 89¢50

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Market opened Oct 5, 2026, 3:17 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$66,962

1 week volume

$67,820

1 month volume

$128,368

1 year volume

$128,368

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

95.4%

1h change

—

1 week change

+25.00%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xb48044b23dba159be231c16505679a3633f8ab034e8f77ee29e14afa77efe3f0
Question ID:
0xc59aa496a4f257f21d63309e33183a0739c90c55576153cbe7c3829993f1964a

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 72.0%, No at 28.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$128,368 in total volume, with $66,962 in the last 24 hours and $3,219 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Oct 5, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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