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Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?

Active · Ends Jan 11, 2027

Yes probability

74.8%

24h change

+14.30%

Total volume

$18,768

Liquidity

$2,483

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 274.8%25.3%

Outcomes

Yes74.8%
No25.3%

Order book

Yes · 80 levels
BidsSize
  1. 73¢42
  2. 73¢15
  3. 72¢8
  4. 72¢25
  5. 72¢160
  6. 71¢150
  7. 70¢60
  8. 68¢27
AsksSize
  1. 77¢62
  2. 77¢800
  3. 77¢80
  4. 78¢160
  5. 82¢154
  6. 83¢35
  7. 83¢14
  8. 83¢45

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/60)

Market opened Oct 1, 2026, 11:13 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$3,723

1 week volume

$8,701

1 month volume

$18,728

1 year volume

$18,768

Spread

4.30%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

94.2%

1h change

+1.15%

1 week change

+10.25%

1 month change

+56.25%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x0c2f589418b21039315f216c01f863e014211954418aaf964ccc962565136164
Question ID:
0x5460ae4a9313696bb9005e859f68a3f9f63bb862301d3aaab57a82880b64b900

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/60)

What are the current odds?

Yes at 74.8%, No at 25.3% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$18,768 in total volume, with $3,723 in the last 24 hours and $2,483 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 11, 2027. The market opened on Oct 1, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.