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Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?

Active · Ends Nov 16, 2026

No probability

89.0%

24h change

+0.50%

Total volume

$7,763

Liquidity

$895

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 211.0%89.0%

Outcomes

Yes11.0%
No89.0%

Order book

Yes · 27 levels
BidsSize
  1. 10¢317
  2. 9¢32
  3. 8¢20
  4. 6¢45
  5. 5¢80
  6. 2¢18
  7. 1¢126
AsksSize
  1. 12¢125
  2. 13¢145
  3. 14¢17
  4. 15¢22
  5. 16¢25
  6. 17¢28
  7. 18¢30
  8. 19¢33

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

If the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Liftoff is defined as the vehicle rising off the launch mount under its own power; a static fire, a hold, or an abort after ignition does not count. Any subsequent anomaly after liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Market opened Oct 1, 2026, 4:30 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$756

1 week volume

$2,438

1 month volume

$7,129

1 year volume

$7,763

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

86.8%

1h change

—

1 week change

-17.00%

1 month change

-59.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x7ac8c787264b428116511e4a7f2bd429c782604d7146ccc64473f381bf714bbc
Question ID:
0xd32bdf60547a50a95c61932dea72a2a6e65bad7b2d46cb906282e55ff47d822a

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 15, 2026?" prediction market?

If the 15th SpaceX Starship flight test lifts off from its launch pad by November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Liftoff is defined as the vehicle rising off the launch mount under its own power; a static fire, a hold, or an abort after ignition does not count. Any subsequent anomaly after liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 11.0%, No at 89.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$7,763 in total volume, with $756 in the last 24 hours and $895 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 16, 2026. The market opened on Oct 1, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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