Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?

Active · Ends Dec 1, 2026

Yes probability

76.0%

24h change

-0.50%

Total volume

$10,700

Liquidity

$673

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes76.0%

No24.0%

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Market opened Sep 28, 2026, 8:21 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$373

1 week volume

$1,264

1 month volume

$8,289

1 year volume

$10,700

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

93.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

+5.00%

1 month change

-13.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x919cc763cab79dd7ab0b6d0e3c8a1d9c78384e15c22eba9f4c290fb8c8a2450e
Question ID:: 0x816e42d8292ec6e5d3d677347a98850ceb842b2725ff78d84a68eb1f93fa94c6

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026?" prediction market?

If the 15th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 76.0%, No at 24.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$10,700 in total volume, with $373 in the last 24 hours and $673 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Dec 1, 2026. The market opened on Sep 28, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.