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Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?

Active · Ends Dec 31, 2026

No probability

87.4%

24h change

+1.05%

Total volume

$32,921

Liquidity

$4,931

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 212.6%87.4%

Outcomes

Yes12.6%
No87.4%

Order book

Yes · 84 levels
BidsSize
  1. 11¢47
  2. 11¢20
  3. 11¢42
  4. 11¢162
  5. 11¢133
  6. 11¢2,040
  7. 10¢105
  8. 10¢5
AsksSize
  1. 14¢5
  2. 14¢5
  3. 14¢105
  4. 14¢5
  5. 15¢51
  6. 15¢5
  7. 15¢5
  8. 15¢5

  • GHOST44728mo ago

    There will be a collapse because there is no stagnation in the Middle East

    0

  • studmuffin69698mo ago

    hello

    0

  • Edmand9mo ago

    Once the consumer finally taps out in Q3 2026, the Fed will have to panic-cut back toward 2.5%.

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Market opened Sep 21, 2026, 4:11 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$1,578

1 week volume

$11,298

1 month volume

$27,211

1 year volume

$32,921

Spread

3.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

87.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

+2.50%

1 month change

+7.10%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x2db6568b722fe6946b6a8471196334e473cfaba5743d620b8b3d7c8a93f6ec15
Question ID:
0x5e58ccd60698dc53e645469f69a516bcc27e91b6e7de838c1801821f257ca2f9

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

What are the current odds?

Yes at 12.6%, No at 87.4% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$32,921 in total volume, with $1,578 in the last 24 hours and $4,931 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Dec 31, 2026. The market opened on Sep 21, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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