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Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes probability

58.0%

24h change

+14.50%

Total volume

$57,396

Liquidity

$6,950

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 1858.0%42.0%

Outcomes

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Order book

Yes · 46 levels
BidsSize
  1. 57¢1,813
  2. 56¢410
  3. 55¢177
  4. 52¢350
  5. 51¢20
  6. 50¢430
  7. 49¢100
  8. 44¢1,019
AsksSize
  1. 59¢1,342
  2. 60¢700
  3. 61¢10
  4. 64¢349
  5. 65¢410
  6. 66¢134
  7. 67¢150
  8. 68¢25

  • betjunkie1d ago

    Navier stokes was already near solution, and the critical pieces of the puzzle had been discovered by mathematicians. This does not hold for the rest of the problems so that they can be solved by brute force in 88 hours.

    0

  • GammaSqueeze12341d ago

    the only scenario where I lose is a scenario where the loss is meaningless relative to the magnitude of what just happened

    0

  • handycap1d ago

    Yes betters are bullish for either human extinction or post-scarcity AI utopia. You're not going to need USDT for either of those, buddy.

    0

  • betjunkie6d ago

    Stupid AI hype. The solution is not verified.

    1

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Sep 9, 2026, 3:59 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$10,747

1 week volume

$31,940

1 month volume

$57,396

1 year volume

$57,396

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

99.4%

1h change

-0.50%

1 week change

+7.50%

1 month change

—

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x117f9132e15eeff2621be398fa57092cf446a2f02cbd7ee8e3714226705c4d3b
Question ID:
0x43d73777a9babea8495cb1c9de7dbacdd38644ba29cf0bc91f6ce228915cf972

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 58.0%, No at 42.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$57,396 in total volume, with $10,747 in the last 24 hours and $6,950 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Sep 9, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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