Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

85.7%

24h change

+0.35%

Total volume

$447,386

Liquidity

$10,774

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes14.3%

No85.7%

nklr5d ago
both anthropic and openai claim to be sitting on YM existence proofs that they are quite long and want to verify and simplify them before releasing them to the public that would cover half of the prize formulation: Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap. Prove that for any compact simple gauge group G, a non-trivial quantum Yang–Mills theory exists on R4 AND has a mass gap ∆ > 0. --- I think it won't be a problem for AI given enough resources to cook up something. It's quite likely for them to race again and release solutions without lean certs that claim to solve the issue but are WIP because of lack of verification and readability adjustment.
0
VLamarca17h ago
Thanks for the money
0
DrShredz6d ago
looks like they got yang mills
0
VLamarca20d ago
Looking back, this was a good bet
1
betjunkie27d ago
I should have bought more at 38c
0
enrico-vasaio1mo ago
they are called Millennium problems because they take on average 1000 years to solve. So the probability one is solved in one year is 1/1000 = 0.1%
1
VLamarca1mo ago
There were 2 Millennium problems solved in the last 25 years though
1
enrico-vasaio29d ago
even better, since probabilities regress to the average, this means that there won't be another solution for 2000 years
0
betjunkie28d ago
We did not have a full proof produced by an automation when we named them millennium problems. However, the market is still overestimating AI capabilities.
0
betjunkie28d ago
There is some progress in the Hodge conjecture and a solution may be close but it could come from the math community or another AI
0
StarMaster27d ago
This is an announcement market … doesn’t matter if it actually gets solved
1
WorkingIsBad24d ago
does it follow poisson distribution?
0
enrico-vasaio22d ago
probably
0
betjunkie1mo ago
Navier stokes was already near solution, and the critical pieces of the puzzle had been discovered by mathematicians. This does not hold for the rest of the problems so that they can be solved by brute force in 88 hours.
0
GammaSqueeze12341mo ago
the only scenario where I lose is a scenario where the loss is meaningless relative to the magnitude of what just happened
1
VLamarca1mo ago
They already solved one of the problems, why would solving another one change things that much?
0
handycap1mo ago
Yes betters are bullish for either human extinction or post-scarcity AI utopia. You're not going to need USDT for either of those, buddy.
2
nklr5d ago
AI companies wasting their time to RL AI on leanslop is detrimental to AI capabilities
0
betjunkie1mo ago
Stupid AI hype. The solution is not verified.
1

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market opened Sep 9, 2026, 3:59 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$994

1 week volume

$57,495

1 month volume

$271,150

1 year volume

$447,386

Spread

1.80%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

88.7%

1h change

—

1 week change

+1.60%

1 month change

-4.70%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x117f9132e15eeff2621be398fa57092cf446a2f02cbd7ee8e3714226705c4d3b
Question ID:: 0x43d73777a9babea8495cb1c9de7dbacdd38644ba29cf0bc91f6ce228915cf972

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved any of the qualifying Millennium Prize Problems between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of OpenAI, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used OpenAI's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from Clay Math Institute or any other organization is required. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 14.3%, No at 85.7% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$447,386 in total volume, with $994 in the last 24 hours and $10,774 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Sep 9, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.