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Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Yes probability

97.6%

24h change

+5.10%

Total volume

$144,756

Liquidity

$22,279

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 297.6%2.4%

Outcomes

Yes97.6%
No2.4%

Order book

Yes · 71 levels
BidsSize
  1. 97¢834
  2. 97¢1,231
  3. 97¢400
  4. 97¢100
  5. 97¢1,039
  6. 96¢100
  7. 96¢100
  8. 95¢100
AsksSize
  1. 98¢100
  2. 98¢50
  3. 99¢100
  4. 99¢5
  5. 99¢120
  6. 100¢263
  7. 100¢440
  8. 100¢660

  • issaisking20d ago

    ez money

    0

  • Contentious-Dinnerdate18d ago

    you have an imposter

    0

  • chessplayer11d ago

    😂

    1

  • issaisking5d ago

    ready?

    0

  • chessplayer2d ago

    Yes

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    training cancelled. no astra in 2026. just check on google

    0

  • issaisking20d ago

    yeah right openai is gonna let everybody party and sit this one out.... prepare to go to school

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    they are developing oher model

    0

  • Contentious-Dinnerdate20d ago

    why assume they'll drop the Astra name

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    I'm not assuming they'll drop the Astra name. The issue is timing. The planned 6.1 release was canceled over safety concerns, not just delayed. A replacement needs to pass evaluations and launch publicly. no evidence justifies a 91% probability of that happening imo

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    I may be wrong, but i think at least 50-50 it would be. keeping humble

    0

  • Contentious-Dinnerdate20d ago

    they have over two and a half months

    0

  • chessplayer20d ago

    Yes, but do you think 90% justifies? They are developing other models in paralel...

    0

  • issaisking19d ago

    did you hear the news?

    0

  • chessplayer19d ago

    Did you?

    0

  • chessplayer11d ago

    🤷🏻‍♂️

    0

  • issaisking27d ago

    ez money lads

    2

  • chessplayer23d ago

    💀

    0

  • issaisking21d ago

    ready?

    0

  • chessplayer11d ago

    🌩

    0

  • wildboar0829d ago

    tibo has announced it's coming soon folks...

    1

  • Waterfall29d ago

    6.1 sol ultrafast, he made the precision later

    0

  • Rainless20d ago

    you was right bro

    0

  • m.herrera1mo ago

    Anthropic releasing Opus 5.5, surely made that OpenAI accelerate the process to release 6.1 Astra

    1

  • Rainless1mo ago

    🤣

    0

  • AsianRock1mo ago

    wassup

    0

  • 0x0F295cF8854fec13c2Be6e9Be73EaB5C3e36A39e-17764526037791mo ago

    ss

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Sep 4, 2026, 4:44 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$9,113

1 week volume

$53,590

1 month volume

$115,149

1 year volume

$144,756

Spread

0.60%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.5%

1h change

—

1 week change

+10.10%

1 month change

+3.60%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x6215c9e255e3926222bc9ead74528c619df8d23e84ad93b72a9874b6de85378d
Question ID:
0x932418e187b434f097b299c104c1197261eb4e768607215e73ceed4d8363f042

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI makes a GPT Astra model designated 6.1 or higher available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be an OpenAI model designated as version 6.1 or higher that includes "Astra" in its name or model identifier, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, GPT-6.1 Astra, Astra 6.1, or GPT Astra 7 would all qualify. GPT-6 Astra, including any rollout, promotion, Pro or Fast mode, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Tier-labeled models such as GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-5.6 Luna and their successors, and task-specific or modality lines such as GPT-5.6-Cyber, Daybreak models, Codex, GPT Image, or Realtime models, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 97.6%, No at 2.4% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$144,756 in total volume, with $9,113 in the last 24 hours and $22,279 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Dec 31, 2026. The market opened on Sep 4, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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