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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Active · Ends Nov 1, 2026

No probability

99.8%

24h change

-0.10%

Total volume

$1.7M

Liquidity

$85,369

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 20.2%99.8%

Outcomes

Yes0.2%
No99.8%

Order book

Yes · 80 levels
BidsSize
  1. 0¢626
AsksSize
  1. 0¢415
  2. 0¢1,791
  3. 1¢200
  4. 1¢10,020
  5. 1¢2,171
  6. 1¢2,091
  7. 1¢7,853
  8. 2¢100

  • hyper-liquid-xyz11d ago

    they ought to add a new market for nov 15

    0

  • yungsoleimani27d ago

    Yopp

    3

  • zthunderfury1mo ago

    Imagine thinking random bulk craft going through suez being the same thing as a saudi oil tanker

    1

  • yungsoleimani27d ago

    Imagine thinking they arent using BaM as leverage to keep foreign interference out… LOL

    0

  • TouchdownTerryDunk1mo ago

    Sorry, so if it is being reported that "Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait solidified, raising closure risks", why is the price of Yes for any of the above dates going down? How does this make sense?

    0

  • 50388131851mo ago

    Time decay. 30+ ships are still going through the strait. But if that will still happen is the question.

    0

  • TouchdownTerryDunk1mo ago

    I understand the rules of the wager but I fail to see how 'Houthis seizing control of the BaM and escalating war with Saudi + possibly US' equates to ever diminishing odds of strait closure. Makes no sense.

    0

  • Telepath-One1mo ago

    Because the Houthis recently reinforced their commitment to only striking Saudi ships and Trump allegedly backed off on planned strikes on Yemen.

    0

  • Tezcatlipoca1mo ago

    There was some assumption that if the houthis took over bab they would immediately shut it down and traffic would drop to almost zero. It’s still open and working relatively normally

    0

  • TouchdownTerryDunk1mo ago

    This should still equate to higher odds of closure because even if Houthis have decided for now not to close the strait, it's now completely within their power to do so and would be an obvious escalatory move if at any point they chose to escalate the ever-expanding war they're now in.

    0

  • SIMOMEGA1mo ago

    the market isnt always right, but good luck trying to change 1M of votes on ur own

    0

  • yungsoleimani28d ago

    If the market is mispriced according to you, buy more lol?

    0

  • Eirnearzx511mo ago

    boberne is win

    0

  • tsybka1mo ago

    I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.

    1

  • NoSteinNoGate1mo ago

    noone is stopping you lil bro

    9

  • DontTrustMe1mo ago

    Yes buyers be like:

    4

  • Car1mo ago

    bruh

    4

  • 0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-17716716546561mo ago

    Pretty sure announcement, and traffic going to 0 today. Weird it correlated exactly on 9/11

    2

  • Prof.Money-Exterminator1mo ago

    Houthis are fucking wild. Ain’t no way for Nopers

    1

  • Raskell1mo ago

    The Egyptians won't tolerate a full closure. The chinese have shown clearly they will side with Egypt. Saudi Arabia is a clown show, but Ansar Allah can not ignore Beijing.

    4

  • Raskell1mo ago

    That being said, of course the market conditions for a yes could be met temporarily.

    0

  • 50388131851mo ago

    Agree with you, the hardest part is whether Houthi is able to maintain the block. More bullish news from Hormuz Letter X, Hisn Murad, the narrowest part of the strait, just fell to the Houthis. However take this as a grain of salt as they sometimes overexaggerate.

    0

  • Raskell1mo ago

    The hardest part isn't if they can maintain a block but if they will even initiate a block that goes far enough. The best shot we have is that the current war caused enough diversions for this to go yes just from that.

    1

  • Raskell1mo ago

    War + the current block is the most propable yes scenario at the moment. The houthis don't want more international pressure atm.

    1

  • PMplayer1mo ago

    annyone care to explain why sept 30 is going up ?

    1

  • saneperson1mo ago

    yemeni forces had to back off and houthis moved forward

    0

  • 0x9F9ef1D7C979ac45BA59BB2a2b0d4Cd6Ea124C57-17716716546561mo ago

    They literally have one more island to take on the straight and then they can shut it down... they captured 3 in a day i believe. No one to stop them.

    1

  • yungsoleimani1mo ago

    houthi mog

    0

  • SIMOMEGA1mo ago

    keep this pfp please

    0

  • yungsoleimani2mo ago

    December 31 Yopp is free money, do i make the rules? No! I just collect the money man sorry not sorry

    2

  • IamBatman-2mo ago

    yopp

    1

  • SIMOMEGA2mo ago

    Nopp

    0

  • zthunderfury2mo ago

    Not going to happen

    0

  • 0xf27de6607Cbd19be1133619B9807ff63Fb86e6d2mo ago

    I wish you had told me before I bought all those YES shares

    1

  • hyper-liquid-xyz2mo ago

    I am an Pakistani ship! I went through the strait and there were not any mines...yet. I am scared once Iran gives the order, they could throw any random amount in there!

    1

  • Deterrance2mo ago

    Houthis planning to seize Bab al-Mandeb Strait: Yemeni minister

    1

  • DontTrustMe2mo ago

    Nothing has changed btw. 🥱

    1

  • yungsoleimani2mo ago

    Sorry not sorry i dont make the rules i just collect the money man

    1

  • AmericaOnly2mo ago

    Shipping down from 42 to 25 since 2 weeks ago. Dec here we come.

    1

  • DontTrustMe2mo ago

    There might a tiny seasonal effect. Early-mid August is unlikely to be the busiest time of the year.

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Market opened Aug 21, 2026, 7:44 AM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:07 PM

Market data

24h volume

$38,612

1 week volume

$129,982

1 month volume

$815,625

1 year volume

$1.7M

Spread

0.20%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.1%

1h change

+0.05%

1 week change

-0.90%

1 month change

-7.30%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x9bb80411fb159d9f3798fe125672a61af141f7dc7d5465c14a5936e4ba878e49
Question ID:
0xf90ae300379eb5795c3ded8abf474f8b5b6a09e73511db2431180b69bc54f6fa

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.2%, No at 99.8% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$1.7M in total volume, with $38,612 in the last 24 hours and $85,369 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 1, 2026. The market opened on Aug 21, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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