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Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?

Active · Ends Nov 4, 2026

No probability

100.0%

24h change

-0.15%

Total volume

$33,212

Liquidity

$29,128

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 20.1%100.0%

Outcomes

Yes0.1%
No100.0%

Order book

Yes · 32 levels
BidsSize
  1. No resting orders
AsksSize
  1. 0¢18,731
  2. 0¢100
  3. 0¢100
  4. 0¢3,683
  5. 1¢100
  6. 1¢886
  7. 1¢1,452
  8. 1¢100

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Market opened Aug 10, 2026, 8:18 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$5,876

1 week volume

$10,064

1 month volume

$27,340

1 year volume

$33,212

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.0%

1h change

—

1 week change

—

1 month change

-0.45%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x51ce8f0b70cefd77fd684590a9569bcc0ce8466191a10ea031bf561e239e068e
Question ID:
0x3b304a353fb662c075b710fb9725fbe81b1deb9f0100e1088688958336932d01

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.1%, No at 100.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$33,212 in total volume, with $5,876 in the last 24 hours and $29,128 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 4, 2026. The market opened on Aug 11, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.