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Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?

Active · Ends Nov 5, 2026

No probability

86.6%

24h change

+0.50%

Total volume

$79,297

Liquidity

$36,311

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 213.5%86.6%

Outcomes

Yes13.5%
No86.6%

Order book

Yes · 94 levels
BidsSize
  1. 12¢403
  2. 12¢20
  3. 12¢22
  4. 12¢280
  5. 12¢127
  6. 12¢460
  7. 12¢212
  8. 11¢634
AsksSize
  1. 14¢12
  2. 15¢2,627
  3. 15¢1,234
  4. 15¢770
  5. 15¢280
  6. 15¢1,128
  7. 15¢540
  8. 15¢430

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Market opened Aug 6, 2026, 7:14 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:10 PM

Market data

24h volume

$19,976

1 week volume

$48,676

1 month volume

$76,833

1 year volume

$79,297

Spread

2.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

88.2%

1h change

+0.40%

1 week change

+2.20%

1 month change

+11.00%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:
0x79361c2379eda2645213973ee61ab00b51ef78eaa142ebc0363e24d8e0666acd
Question ID:
0xd3fe61275944289a306e29eb91e60dabf92887e594c234e1b9daec61cb123f01

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?" prediction market?

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 13.5%, No at 86.6% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$79,297 in total volume, with $19,976 in the last 24 hours and $36,311 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Nov 5, 2026. The market opened on Aug 6, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.