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Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

97.8%

24h change

—

Total volume

$3.5M

Liquidity

$112,720

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 22.3%97.8%

Outcomes

Yes2.3%
No97.8%

Order book

Yes · 119 levels
BidsSize
  1. 2¢6,696
  2. 2¢119,168
  3. 2¢4,952
  4. 2¢50
  5. 2¢204
  6. 1¢20
  7. 1¢1,616
  8. 1¢3,383
AsksSize
  1. 2¢1,482
  2. 2¢1,500
  3. 3¢1,000
  4. 3¢325
  5. 3¢1,000
  6. 3¢1,111
  7. 3¢300
  8. 3¢2,000

  • 12beduins4d ago

    How worthless they are, the ukro sheep getting sacrificed and used and they never do anything to stop it

    0

  • 12beduins4d ago

    Flamingo missile project has been terminated, FIrepoint say it was not cost effective... LOL. What a grift it is Project Ukraine, what a scam!

    0

  • raindogsandcats4d ago

    Пожалуйста, украинцы, купите YES, чтобы мне можно было по более приятной цене купить NO, а до 2.5% за два месяца слишком мало(

    0

  • raindogsandcats4d ago

    Крым удержат любой ценой, надо будет ядеркой снесут все мирные города на Украине, это тот момент, где можно не сомневаться - нет цены, которую Россия не готова заплатить за Крым. Отдать Крым это как отдать Москву, Новгород или Питер, русские земли не отдают. Чечню могут отдать, могут потерять Запорожскую область, но Крым нет. Конечно, во влажных фантазиях украинцев всегда будет образ как они входят на абрамсах в Крым и пьют кофе в Ялте, но кофе в Ялте будут пить русские. Фантазируйте дальше, нам русским от этого будет только приятнее. Всем сомневающимся - пишите сюда ваши почту, настрою вам автоматическую отправку на 50 лет писем с открытками из русского Крыма.

    0

  • bibus12321d ago

    @tsybka, I see how desperately you trying to regain "end of Iranian blockade" loses

    0

  • Quilty20d ago

    cope harder 🤡 she lost like 1% of her stack

    0

  • pink.impala1mo ago

    Everybody i know think ukraine SUCK

    2

  • pink.impala1mo ago

    WOW can you believe Russia actually gets stronger and stronger over time and increase the intensity of their attacks while Ukriane gets weaker and weaker, what an incredible surprise so absolutely impossible to predict this would happen!!!!!!

    1

  • pink.impala1mo ago

    zelenki a russian agent leading ukraine by the nose to its destruction 🐷

    0

  • DrOetker2mo ago

    THEIR NOT GETTING THE KRIM. GIVE ME MY DOLLAR!!!!!!!!

    5

  • 0x798F98dC26CccBb7061E02F43De4E55f6362d7d3-17721258642042mo ago

    They're not... learn english

    0

  • 0x0321B844430d2028dE2E3030bd57FF22Aae98cb5-177481726860624d ago

    Holy fuck. 57k shares because state-funded western propaganda promised you they'd get it any day now 😅 I actually pity you

    1

  • 12beduins2mo ago

    Ukraine so worthless, its really quite remarkable how worthless it is!

    0

  • 12beduins2mo ago

    WATCH: Military recruitment officers in Kropyvnytskyi detained a taxi driver while he was working, despite the fact that he had a pre-booked appointment. The passenger was thrown out onto the street.

    0

  • pink.impala2mo ago

    Is women's mobilization needed? If women have equal rights with men, then they should also have equal duties – equal duties to defend Ukraine, – says Ukrainian Armed Forces sergeant and squad leader Yulia Kobrynovych.

    1

  • szivar.43mo ago

    Thy should create a market for June 2027 and Dec 2027

    1

  • EnzoTheUser3mo ago

    as a Ukrainian I'd love this to happen but even capturing Nova Kahovka is insanely hard if ruzzia run out of their meat they will send kids/women to protect the Crimea

    3

  • pink.impala3mo ago

    prepare to have your country turned to landlocked rump state!

    4

  • EnzoTheUser3mo ago

    i know, j3ws already have plans for it, including flooding my country with 3rd world tr@sh

    2

  • AlexB202mo ago

    Why do u support Zelenskyy then? People in Crimea wants to be a part of Russia

    1

  • xew4w33452mo ago

    I live in Moscow and want it to be a part of Norway or Zwitzerland. What are we gonna do?

    1

  • pink.impala1mo ago

    ask norway to come get it for you 🤡

    0

  • kalsarikannit3mo ago

    Little man, you're obsessed with me. Going back to enjoying my vacations. Keep saying my name and keeping my memory alive.

    0

  • kalsarikannit3mo ago

    Yesterday I fell asleep to an 8 hour atmospheric compilation of Wildberries on fire across Russia. Such pleasant dreams I had.

    2

  • SubashChandraBose3mo ago

    just fly to kyiv next time, you egt that experience almost every other day(RIP those who died today)

    0

  • pink.impala3mo ago

    Good news! Gen. Surovikin back from exile in Africa to lead assault on Kherson! 🔥

    1

  • pink.impala3mo ago

    Can Russia plz hurry n liberate the ppl of DPR n LPR from these horrible horrible ukronazis!

    0

  • pink.impala3mo ago

    "We don't have a neighbor, but a nation that has no right to exist," - the new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Drapaty. Drapaty also called the residents of Donbas "a burp of the Soviet Union." In his opinion, they are an "unconscious population" that wants "freebies" and doesn't want to work.

    0

  • 0x68a9B96f7E919f4F310F993a80341B10A5193630-17831619812423mo ago

    Thank you for keeping the price down. Buying a dollar for 10c is always nice :)

    2

  • 0x4c7f4ef95d0f32a035f673f6f94d7382F5FcF8F8-17691938766013mo ago

    💯

    2

  • EnzoTheUser3mo ago

    only if putin dies it would be possible or some type of revolution.. otherwise its no

    0

  • kalsarikannit3mo ago

    You zero bet losers are even more annoying than the mindless vatniks

    3

  • SubashChandraBose3mo ago

    your bet is 9$ right now. It's not much better than the 0 bet losers

    3

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Market opened May 27, 2026, 10:11 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:07 PM

Market data

24h volume

$60,712

1 week volume

$128,090

1 month volume

$554,645

1 year volume

$3.5M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

81.4%

1h change

—

1 week change

-0.45%

1 month change

-1.05%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xbe9d61d80c767264a0adc8a16453fbcaf0413e673e665cc7c14701691143fac0
Question ID:
0x527d10748426212005dbe6a618b588d736f4c68e52ef50e958c6674253a4e5ba

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 2.3%, No at 97.8% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$3.5M in total volume, with $60,712 in the last 24 hours and $112,720 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on May 27, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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