Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

DontTrustMe11d ago

Dec. 2026 & early 2027 resolution dates are so badly priced. Bloomberg says that a deal could be reached “in the first half of 2027”, with the intent of fully completing the operation before the end of Trump’s term. But since a vote is required, we won’t get an official "merger announcement” at first, only a merger proposal/plan announcement that will be put to a vote, which won’t be enough to resolve this market. That 30% by January 31, 2027 is laughable.

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theo512d ago

CNN: SpaceX and Tesla have formed committees to discuss potential merger, Musk says

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theo512d ago

BBC 32 minutes ago Elon Musk says Tesla-SpaceX merger being considered !

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DontTrustMe12d ago

In 2024, when Musk asked his shareholders to vote on his pay package, the vote was announced on April 17, 2024 and the results got announced on June 13, 2024. 58 days later (so 2 months after). These things take a bit of time. And they are not ready to vote on any deal at the moment. No-December 31, 2026 is a risk-free bet imo. No-January 31st, 2027 probably as well.

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DontTrustMe13d ago

"I think some people assume that SpaceX and Tesla merger is a certainty. I think that would be overstating it." "At the end of the day, the shareholders have to be supportive of this, particularly on the Tesla's side, we will need a 50% vote of all shares. Not just those who vote. 50% of all shareholders. That's quite a high hurdle to try to achieve."

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DontTrustMe13d ago

Elon Musk's reply pretty much kills the idea that a merger between SpaceX and Tesla could be announced out of the blue in the short term.

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Ziraldo19d ago

*TESLA-SPACEX MERGER ANNOUNCEMENT POSSIBLE BEFORE DEC: BARCLAYS

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DontTrustMe18d ago

You guys are aware that this is basically one guy working for Barclays who believes that it would make sense right? Not some guy with special information.

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shomski2mo ago

you will be smiling on tuesday

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DontTrustMe2mo ago

You are so mysterious and so cool bro. 🥵

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tiongbu2mo ago

I will be smiling but you will be crying

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SIMOMEGA2mo ago

point of your comment?

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DontTrustMe3mo ago

I don't think that WSJ article changes anything. There is no confirmation inside it that a merger will definitely happen. And if one was to ever happen, the article makes it clear that the Chinese side of Tesla's operations would first need to be fully separated or sold. 2026 is in all likelihood a too short timeframe for this to happen.

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LAVALAVALAVA14d ago

Elon already confirmed that the information is not true. While a merger/acquisition is incredibly complex, there would not be a need to separate the Chinese business.

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DontTrustMe14d ago

He only denied the splitting project really, not the fact that SpaceX being a defence contractor for the U.S. government would complicate things. Makes the yes even less likely.

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SIMOMEGA3mo ago

how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol

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DontTrustMe3mo ago

Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.

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0xe1EF6DA20a953fa234e4B4c05D9ACc79d27a0145-17769601658133mo ago

Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.

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DontTrustMe3mo ago

Are you talking about that: "The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. " In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo. And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.

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SIMOMEGA4mo ago

dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?

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ProofOfWork4mo ago

For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control

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SIMOMEGA4mo ago

what are the downsides of a merge then?

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LZABACUS5mo ago

The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened

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SIMOMEGA4mo ago

How?

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0xC1F43854000BFF81Da38332Fb25Cf94765bD5344-17685767703207mo ago

Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.

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ProofOfWork4mo ago

He would gain control.

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0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-17649005070588mo ago

H

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0x4DA3DBF07A583EE9F8f539bc8449659fA7b1210B-17649005070588mo ago

G Wells

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