Iran leadership change by December 31?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

87.0%

24h change

-0.50%

Total volume

$5.7M

Liquidity

$101,561

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes13.0%

No87.0%

ZeroWallet8h ago
Advice For No Holders: War Can Pump Price To More Than 40 For "Yes" And There Is 75% Chance For War By 31 Dec So Cant Understand Why You Buy No For This Market :D Advice : Wait 2 Week And If War Not Started Then You Can Bought "No" Good Luck
3
yonips5h ago
has a point tbh
0
tsybka12d ago
safe khamenei
1
Quilty12d ago
prepare to lose your money you scumbag!
0
N.sam26d ago
What is dead may never die
1
sqsb27d ago
:)
0
Jatheripper1mo ago
good luck killing the dead
1
Robbb2mo ago
lol
1
0x619DC40631C5f78606d17Ed1528d62898096B31C-17679157634612mo ago
Breaking:Mojtaba waked up !
0
altdel2mo ago
As always, just Iranian rumors. Take advantage while others are selling.
3
Mikelious2mo ago
BREAKING 🔴 Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in extremely critical condition and could pass away at any moment, two sources close to the Pezeshkian administration told IranWire.
1
NOIZYUV3mo ago
Mojtaba Khamenei's father-in-law, former Iranian Parliament Speaker Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel, in an interview with the Iranian IRNA agency: "For certain reasons, he is not in contact with any entity or person, hoping that he is healthy"
2
Treedud253mo ago
Already over
0
PMTraderAdam3mo ago
In the city, 'member used to drive a Yukon
0
GollumGekko3mo ago
the dead cannot die
13
Laurenman3mo ago
Fact.
0
Zubumafu3mo ago
Better sell those 6K bro, they can't hide the fact that their leader is dead forever
0
Zubumafu3mo ago
He is likely dead, and if not, he will get assassinated, Trump is sick of him
0
NoSteinNoGate3mo ago
Can a dead person be a de facto leader? What would Saul Kripke think of this?
1
Zubumafu3mo ago
They will keep him as Zombie leader for the next 2-3 months and then replace him
0
NOIZYUV3mo ago
The Saudi channel Al-Hadath claims, citing an Israeli security source: "Mojtaba Khamenei is not in Iran."
0
JuicyPusy3mo ago
Yall retarded? He went to his father's funeral yesterday.
0
NOIZYUV3mo ago
As a ghost maybe
1
0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-17665072160513mo ago
I don't understand why the scandalous lack of any proof that Mojtaba is alive isn't being used as a major weapon against the regime.
0
NOIZYUV4mo ago
He's dead and it's only a matter of time until it becomes known
2
Zubumafu4mo ago
Yup, though it won't happen on July, they have to finish this war face, the change will be a month or two after the negotiations (and war) ends
0
NOIZYUV4mo ago
Yeah I probably made a mistake buying for July
0
Zubumafu4mo ago
You did, that's for sure, it will take a few months at the very least until they admit that he is dead
0
NOIZYUV4mo ago
Yeah bro, I placed an order for june 2027
0
Zubumafu3mo ago
Yeah that one is free money, just sucks that it's going to be a while until we receive it
1

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Mar 9, 2026, 2:55 AM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$74,426

1 week volume

$191,005

1 month volume

$743,026

1 year volume

$5.7M

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

88.0%

1h change

+0.50%

1 week change

-1.50%

1 month change

+1.50%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0x377e7fe65cf198a7fc4fdae3f2136b74729279267858daaf96718b23bc2a5607
Question ID:: 0xa0cf2fc827eee7da2569d980c0cab8b66ebe25d8f3452c22d5a4e3c06519038e

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Iran leadership change by December 31?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 13.0%, No at 87.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$5.7M in total volume, with $74,426 in the last 24 hours and $101,561 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Mar 9, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.