Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Active · Ends Dec 31, 2026

Yes probability

86.9%

24h change

+0.65%

Total volume

$7.1M

Liquidity

$38,403

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes86.9%

No13.2%

0x688B15F0B28ED993dba8EE14F3485ddbB55349F5-17745515912741mo ago
Ncr-Iran says that Mojtaba Khamenei’s Word Is No Longer Final
0
0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-17706655985571mo ago
What is dead may never die
1
Spirit-LT2mo ago
Lebanese MP Ashraf Rifi, who previously served as Minister of Justice and headed the Internal Security Forces, has stated that Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is clinically dead. “In my assessment, he is either clinically dead, or his political role has come to a complete end. The statements being published in his name are most likely a reflection of a power struggle within the Iranian regime,” Palestinian news agency Maan quoted him as saying. Rifi named IRGC commander General Ahmad Vahidi as the key figure in Iran’s leadership, saying that he had managed to consolidate what remains of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and concentrate power in Iran in the hands of the organization. According to the politician, this goes beyond an internal power struggle and amounts to a coup d’état. It represents a departure from Iran’s fundamental principle of velayat-e faqih, under which the head of state is the country’s highest religious authority — the Supreme Leader.
0
Treedud252mo ago
This will be over quickly… read the news. Sketchy meeting in pitch black car..? Critical condition?
1
vpoznyak22mo ago
wasy money or..?
0
skbdi2mo ago
even if he never appears, irgc will still claim he is the leader. so this could be disputed
0
Treedud253mo ago
WHO ARE THE CLOWNS BIDDING THIS DOWN
2
Yarick3mo ago
Only idiots, watch us or Israel take that disabled already leader out…
1
Treedud253mo ago
Hes dead.
1
Yarick3mo ago
Wait and see what Trump does to him…lol
0
0x688B15F0B28ED993dba8EE14F3485ddbB55349F5-17745515912743mo ago
Invisible leader
0
UmaSucksBalls3mo ago
Trump is going balls to the wall to force the regime change. This year he proved to not taco by wiping out the previous leaders. He’s hella pissed now with what’s going in the strait. Either he wipes them out or America goes into the deepest levels of the Great Depression from all the war spending and let’s be real this mfer wants to his ratings to go up by end of year.
2
Treedud253mo ago
This is already over.
2
UmaSucksBalls3mo ago
Mfer been dead just need intel to leak it. Fucking IRGC worst than a girlfriend who will cry to your face but is actually lying behind the tears.
3
Hummershark3mo ago
This fucker already dead!!!!
7
Yarick3mo ago
He has been mummified 3 months ago with his daddy….
0
Mr.Izomuaren3mo ago
yesss
0
UmaSucksBalls3mo ago
Operation Nuke Yes holders
0
UmaSucksBalls3mo ago
Mark my words this bitch is going to flip to no
2
0xBdE37A19aAb4EBaEFAf7263E7C6010982f6e317f-17736838669613mo ago
00jbvof3
0
hyper-liquid-xyz3mo ago
Ooo possibly more friction in negotiations - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.
0
UmaSucksBalls3mo ago
The all of sudden jump in no head of state is interesting. Maybe trump finna nuke all of Iran.
0
UmaSucksBalls3mo ago
It’s going down! I’m yelling timber!
1
Ardalof3mo ago
Say hi to Ali Khomeini
0

Rules

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Market opened Feb 28, 2026, 9:23 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:12 PM

Market data

24h volume

$54,542

1 week volume

$145,216

1 month volume

$430,814

1 year volume

$7.1M

Spread

2.30%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

88.0%

1h change

+0.40%

1 week change

+1.35%

1 month change

-0.30%

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0x25fb28382075f418a944a781a9f8840e2f541152eea0d9798d1cabfa1466adbb
Question ID:: 0xd72f68ada62aff9ba67dd2cbb56fabec9928aa198daafbd8042ac18ccabec003

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 86.9%, No at 13.2% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$7.1M in total volume, with $54,542 in the last 24 hours and $38,403 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Dec 31, 2026. The market opened on Mar 1, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.