Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

Active · Ends Dec 31, 2026

No probability

100.0%

24h change

—

Total volume

$586,615

Liquidity

$83,449

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes0.1%

No100.0%

ctre11d ago
should be at 70
0
Pump11d ago
95
0
ThanksGivingTurkey100122d ago
From 1,11t to 1,25t mcap in private for anthropic within 10days. Let’s go
1
altdel20d ago
Don’t forget to sell before it’s too late.
1
no1yet1mo ago
AI is a massive trend, no doubt. But SpaceX has been built over two decades. It’s more than just rockets and spacecraft: Starlink, xAI (Grok), X, and massive AI infrastructure.
5
ThanksGivingTurkey10011mo ago
dont under estimate anthropic growth. but i got u, id also cope if i was on the verge of becoming a 1001th day thanksgiving turkey
0
no1yet1mo ago
It’s all good, man. The bets are in.
0
LordProtector17d ago
SpaceX: ~$30–35B Revenue in 2026, ~+50–90% growth. Anthropic: ~$65B+ ARR, ~+620% growth.
0
r-x-c1mo ago
I don't think anthropic can surpass SPCX
3
ThanksGivingTurkey10011mo ago
bruh 1,18T$ fdv in private already. Not ready
0
Asahiko1mo ago
SPCX has many narrative an enormous fan base and had time to get sell the dream, anthropic (heavy usuer here) still not at all an equivalent community, also all other Frontier labs at least on the public. (accessible) models have more or less catch up, I can see the 2.T headings not more and will prob be 1.5
4
ThanksGivingTurkey100123d ago
1.25t in private
0
ThanksGivingTurkey10011mo ago
anthropic has to close above 2.11 trillions $ to surpass space x, easily doable if the IPO starts at 2t, this should be at 70 c yes
0
altdel1mo ago
The market is overreacting. They could still reschedule the IPO for 2027, especially with the rate hikes and uncertainty around Iran.
2
Probs1mo ago
The other polymatket for whether Anthropic IPOs this year is at 80%
1
ThanksGivingTurkey10011mo ago
Btw mcap to beat : 2,11 t$
1
schizohedgehog1mo ago
FT Report = A story of no story!!!
2
ThanksGivingTurkey10011mo ago
thats brazy
0
gjrdjldkf2mo ago
Elon Musk
1
mdslkvndfl2mo ago
SpaceX 😃
2
mnvlkdfvhldf2mo ago
Elon Musk is one of my idols that I admire the most.
2
SIMOMEGA2mo ago
what are these "x i adore the most" even trying to achieve
1
SIMOMEGA2mo ago
on second thought, probably js trying to pump the prices? not that it matters though, since realistically SpaceX isnt gna lose anyway
0
fghj876542mo ago
open ai
2
denizaltin4192mo ago
i am not interested in OpenAI or Discord at current prices
1
SIMOMEGA2mo ago
why should we care
0
PSYCHO.CALLS.285mo ago
I think space x won’t even go public
1
Goopster3mo ago
hmmmmmm
3
0xD5F5032A2Eeaf4123C5A1B7F6626CF59Fce1D19B-17627622344336mo ago
No way it’s not SpaceX—everyone’s still pretending Rivian or Stripe might pull off a $100B+ IPO while Elon’s quietly prepping Starlink spinoff with actual revenue and zero burn rate. Come argue about valuation math in our community: htt ps://t.m e/+hfDgUWSeQxs1MzZl
0
Angel5556mo ago
spacex of corse
1
dkca6mo ago
wealthy
1
Luciem6mo ago
Congratulations in advance to Musk for becoming increasingly wealthy!
3
gbjgc7mo ago
spx
0
Payna7mo ago
It must be to the moon
2
Angel5556mo ago
SPACEX
0

Rules

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Market opened Feb 2, 2026, 8:04 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$3,000

1 week volume

$3,000

1 month volume

$5,000

1 year volume

$528,534

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.0%

1h change

—

1 week change

—

1 month change

—

Negative risk

Yes

Condition ID:: 0x609798f2a125de364d8e0967e67b87e47c1aaa4727b375ebf816de491108e1f1
Question ID:: 0x4ca863cbfdb98cc28e6a6de05377045bf2b42c2e926f3a1021fcb84c7755e406

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.1%, No at 100.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$586,615 in total volume, with $3,000 in the last 24 hours and $83,449 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Dec 31, 2026. The market opened on Feb 2, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.