Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

80.0%

24h change

+1.00%

Total volume

$226,252

Liquidity

$3,312

Price history

YesNo

Outcomes

Yes20.0%

No80.0%

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Market opened Jan 23, 2026, 6:43 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$3,038

1 week volume

$5,778

1 month volume

$27,568

1 year volume

$226,252

Spread

2.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

91.7%

1h change

+0.50%

1 week change

+5.00%

1 month change

+4.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:: 0xfa3dc3876b9210267914d74d4686a2c71bec3bf37bc1dc059a70f3e3e41ca1a7
Question ID:: 0x0567675db8a0c729c05c18627420922fcffc709e9bb3e491b6836c97624b4303

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 20.0%, No at 80.0% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$226,252 in total volume, with $3,038 in the last 24 hours and $3,312 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Jan 23, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.