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Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

96.2%

24h change

-0.15%

Total volume

$888,796

Liquidity

$59,402

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 23.8%96.2%

Outcomes

Yes3.8%
No96.2%

Order book

Yes · 84 levels
BidsSize
  1. 4¢367
  2. 4¢611
  3. 3¢154
  4. 3¢100
  5. 2¢200
  6. 2¢13
  7. 2¢728
  8. 2¢3,000
AsksSize
  1. 4¢11
  2. 4¢2,585
  3. 4¢4,934
  4. 5¢1,700
  5. 5¢5
  6. 5¢6
  7. 6¢1,000
  8. 6¢2,000

No comments on this market yet.

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jan 12, 2026, 8:42 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:13 PM

Market data

24h volume

$11,969

1 week volume

$23,569

1 month volume

$31,661

1 year volume

$888,796

Spread

0.40%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

82.4%

1h change

—

1 week change

+0.95%

1 month change

+0.75%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4
Question ID:
0x6d7f8bbaf4b203dc91ad553778fa5458d1cf864bfbc3b73e5184904abfb8ec66

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 3.8%, No at 96.2% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$888,796 in total volume, with $11,969 in the last 24 hours and $59,402 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Jan 12, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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