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Human moon landing in 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

99.1%

24h change

—

Total volume

$2M

Liquidity

$22,513

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 20.9%99.1%

Outcomes

Yes0.9%
No99.1%

Order book

Yes · 94 levels
BidsSize
  1. 1¢860
  2. 1¢659
  3. 1¢1,019
  4. 1¢2,116
  5. 0¢900
  6. 0¢9,036
  7. 0¢42,015
  8. 0¢73,487
AsksSize
  1. 1¢218
  2. 1¢232
  3. 1¢24
  4. 1¢121
  5. 1¢125
  6. 2¢150
  7. 2¢100
  8. 2¢200

  • jozeslemsek4mo ago

    Tim is NOT going to the moon

    0

  • PubgWithoutSaving6mo ago

    4% bond lmao

    0

  • obvinsidertrading7mo ago

    just a reminder, artemis' mission only oribts the moon and has 0 plans for human moonwalk

    2

  • Topsyy7mo ago

    yeaaa we know but lets pump this market :)

    0

  • Moiro8mo ago

    NASA’s official Artemis III target is “no earlier than September 2026

    1

  • Puera19948mo ago

    What about the option to bet on a robot?

    2

  • Naichli9mo ago

    March: Artemis II launch, then China comes out of nowhere and launches a moon mission at the same time. The rockets are racing in the sky but Artemis II is not supposed to land on the surface, even though they are faster, so China lands on the moon and the bet resolves Yes

    17

  • kandinsky9mo ago

    Can we get a market for 'is the earth flat' so that UMA whales can fabricate the truth and say it's NOT when it CLEARLY IS if you just look outside. YOU CAN'T SEE A CURVE. NO ONE CAN.

    7

  • aialphaswarm7mo ago

    🤣

    1

  • TheStoist5mo ago

    I see a curve it's very obvious

    0

  • -Dominus-9mo ago

    ARTEMIS 2 WILL LAND ON THE MOON, I REPEAT: ARTEMIS 2 WILL LAND ON THE MOON WITH THE ORION MODULE TO COLLECT MOON SOIL.

    0

  • crav7mo ago

    yeah in 2028 lmao

    0

  • -Dominus-7mo ago

    that will be artemis 4

    0

  • Snow-White9mo ago

    a dangerous bond - the Americans might simply lie again and say they landed on the moon.

    3

  • TheStoist5mo ago

    Nobody has been to the moon ever

    0

  • 0xD9966248A8f30572fD78e6433Ba488F4D3862aBa-17591651375229mo ago

    Its going to happen.

    0

  • fakalluhoeus9mo ago

    the moon doesnt even exist

    86

  • TheStoist5mo ago

    You don't exist then

    0

  • VibeCoding39mo ago

    Who the hell buys yes?

    8

  • FigBag9mo ago

    Why would you buy no? You're better off just holding your money in a savings account if you want a 5% return?

    8

  • IraqiLobster9mo ago

    because they might """land""" (*sarcasm)

    1

  • Nileroadrun7mo ago

    On the hopes china does this year I guess

    0

  • JewedGambler9mo ago

    Who is ready for the updated CGI

    4

  • TheNoobBeaver9mo ago

    A beaver can dream

    16

  • archive2505049mo ago

    While Artemis II launches this year, their mission is incapable of any moonwalks. Artemis III however will have the tools to do so.

    2

  • Deboroh9mo ago

    to

    0

  • DeverNoom9mo ago

    i'm stuck in this dumb market, mf THERE IS 0% CHANCE FOR THIS YEAR

    4

  • ac209mo ago

    yes yes

    0

  • Marlawe9mo ago

    2027

    0

  • DeverNoom9mo ago

    lmao

    0

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jan 7, 2026, 8:41 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$174

1 week volume

$586

1 month volume

$5,062

1 year volume

$2M

Spread

0.10%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

80.6%

1h change

—

1 week change

-0.30%

1 month change

-0.35%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x57e94552876e125c4a030239d693576dac1792e956982b653ce8c9b4fbc8f23c
Question ID:
0x842edbaa7cd6c6873168fa70586c568849e76b09914fa519cf278a214b17cf7a

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Human moon landing in 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 0.9%, No at 99.1% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$2M in total volume, with $174 in the last 24 hours and $22,513 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Jan 7, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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