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Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

96.5%

24h change

-0.30%

Total volume

$994,486

Liquidity

$58,456

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Sep 15Sep 183.5%96.5%

Outcomes

Yes3.5%
No96.5%

Order book

Yes · 45 levels
BidsSize
  1. 3¢70
  2. 3¢47
  3. 1¢139
  4. 1¢254
  5. 1¢1,301
  6. 1¢40,027
  7. 1¢30,000
  8. 1¢23
AsksSize
  1. 4¢334
  2. 4¢307
  3. 6¢276
  4. 6¢200
  5. 6¢313
  6. 7¢2,175
  7. 7¢20,000
  8. 7¢20
  • BABELCONSTEL3mo ago

    No shot it happens before 2028

    0

  • SpaceXMoon3mo ago

    @BABELCONSTEL you can exit and probably make all the cash back on SpaceX dillusional numbers but prefer being stucked here. And yes Doge-1 is happening very soon, you just need to track news which you obviously not doing. You know why they added the June 2027 bracket? It’s not a coincidence, because it’s planned on next lunar mission this year and it can slip to Q1. Goodluck wasting time btw

    0

  • BABELCONSTEL3mo ago

    Ill put up $500,000 if someone wants to take the other side of it

    0

  • SpaceXMoon3mo ago

    you are little bit weird, it’s not about whether it’s going to happen or not, even though I think it happens this year with high probability. It’s about how you use funds, there are so many free markets or risk free options than that 4% you trying to milk here. You will have to wait until the end of the year even if it resolves to your side. There is a market if Trump goes to space in 2026, plenty of shares at 97c, you think it’s going to happen? obviously not, nobody buys that because it’s “stuck” liquidity for a year…

    0

  • SpaceXMoon3mo ago

    DOGE-1 to the Moon is still underway with years of development and a recent satellite upgrading engineering sprint to make it on the next feasible Lunar mission with SpaceX as long foretold! Stay tuned for updates from us as we advance toward the great 12U Lunar CubeSat launch! GG

    0

  • 0x2b521cd49a39a683Fc0Cae58Cfe10Bb33c52a7D7-17743845266974mo ago

    dema bable

    0

  • 0x62fA7E303158BDc4e441F3473d291BdcbC763F15-17740927221504mo ago

    Check out my detailed breakdown as to why doge-1 will launch this year on twitter @SylwesterUrban7

    3

  • SpaceXMoon4mo ago

    Good analysis, there were only good signs until now, just a matter of time. Why would they put a timer if it wouldn’t be happening this year?

    2

  • ytr1515mo ago

    What s happening?

    0

  • CHROME-2165mo ago

    probably insiders, too many new accounts or holding only this position

    2

  • woeva5mo ago

    Patriots loss just costed BABELCONSTEL $122k, Doge will be the slowest drag on his portfolio actually, 'the hedge' 😅

    2

  • CHROME-2165mo ago

    Instead of focusing on sports markets to make it all back, dude is focused on how to lock in as much as possible in this one 😂

    0

  • 0x9FF615956dE58944AEE62ac673f9C37e1508e900-17699719738535mo ago

    Get Shorty

    0

  • CHROME-2165mo ago

    Never saw a guy who would bet big just to prove he is right lol, without any beneficial return. What options BABEL has? Exit at 93c making a little bit of profit and not wait until Dec 31 or wait until the end for additional 3-4k with risk of losing it all. Since he is not even trying to exit looks like he is ready to risk it for peanuts or maybe there is no liquidity for him to exit because people holding too good odds. Anyway good signs already appearing, those who tracking they probably know. Goodluck x2, see ya in May.

    7

  • 0x9FF615956dE58944AEE62ac673f9C37e1508e900-17699719738535mo ago

    You could make a better return in a checking account with zero risk.....

    3

  • CHROME-2165mo ago

    IM-3 and Doge-1 will be confirmed in May. SpaceX IPO “accidentally” planned right after for mid summer and right before Doge-1 launch in September. Everything will be used to hype up the IPO. 2026 is the Moon year, Artemis launched and someone on NO thinks it’s hard to launch a 40 kg CubeSat that been years in development. Goodluck lol

    5

  • Nibiru25mo ago

    Thanks BABELCONSTEL for exit liquidity

    2

  • 0x62fA7E303158BDc4e441F3473d291BdcbC763F15-17740927221505mo ago

    Can we just appreciate babels commitment to losing money. Just check his history :D

    4

  • 0x9FF615956dE58944AEE62ac673f9C37e1508e900-17699719738536mo ago

    The stars are aligning for 2026 launch!

    5

  • Nibiru26mo ago

    There is a chance it happens this year

    7

  • BABELCONSTEL6mo ago

    I'm down to bet more if you want. I just don't see the team pulling it off with all the delays that have happened since 2021. It will happen in 2027 in my view.

    0

  • weva5mo ago

    pnl atl..

    0

  • BABELCONSTEL5mo ago

    you have $20 LOL

    0

  • woeva5mo ago

    hes in profit, u donated almost half a milly $ to other players lmfao

    0

  • BABELCONSTEL6mo ago

    There is no chance it happens this year

    0

  • Pump6mo ago

    Have you tried to make any due diligence before aping 260k$ into this? You could farm probably same if not higher APY by staking your USDC lmao. Try to ask Grok or any AI about probability of happening it this year if you are too lazy to do it. And btw you can check the official project site ([link removed]) that shows a countdown targeting September 13, 2026. It might not happen this year, but since the CubeSat is potentially ready and Doge-1 got all gov permissions necessary I dont see many arguments why it cant be this year. So in conclusion the real probability is about 10-20%, specially when SpaceX is now more focused on Lunar missions rather than Mars. Its happening either this or next year with probability of 96%.

    1

  • BABELCONSTEL6mo ago

    If you are so sure double up your position. I will provide more than enough liquidity for you to ape another 50,000 yes shares at around 5 cents. According to your "math" that should be a good rate compared to the 10-20% you claim the true odds are.

    0

  • BABELCONSTEL6mo ago

    I don't believe in the team or doge-1 happening this year. There are too many delays that have happened since 2021. I just don't see them doing it this year at all. I saw the website but targets change and deadlines get missed the only chance it has of happening this year is in late Q3 and if that doesn't happen then its 2027 imo.

    0

  • Pump6mo ago

    that is solid argument, you probably right

    0

  • BABELCONSTEL7mo ago

    Why are you all selling?

    0

  • Pump7mo ago

    They secretly launched Doge-1 in 2025, so the market is being cancelled

    0

  • ytr1517mo ago

    Stop Babel

    3

  • BABELCONSTEL7mo ago

    Stop?

    0

  • Nibiru27mo ago

    Bro, why you so sure that the launch won't happen this year?

    10

  • Nibiru28mo ago

    The top and only No guy is so brave and confident. The dude sets the probability himself

    5

  • Pump8mo ago

    Someone explain me why would you lock 200k$ on a market for 6+ months when you can get almost same ROI by staking usdc on any cex/dex risk free with possibility to withdraw anytime? While it is still projected to happen in 2026 with IM-3 mission...It says launch date 2026 [link removed] + Samuel asked for this market to be created and launched a website with Doge-1 merch hmmmmm

    4

  • Optimus-8mo ago

    generational retard

    1

  • aliento157mo ago

    What are you suggesting?

    0

  • Nibiru25mo ago

    Top NO dude blocked the money here so he wouldn't lose it on other markets.

    1

  • Optimus-8mo ago

    to the moooon!

    9

  • Hazlitt8mo ago

    Soaring into the universe, vast and boundless

    1

  • Nibiru28mo ago

    Early 2026 Final launch readiness and review. Mid 2026 DOGE-1 launch and deployment. Late 2026 Lunar orbit insertion, data and billboard operations [link removed]

    7

  • moistcookie8mo ago

    wont be until Q3 in 2027 buddy

    1

  • Nibiru28mo ago

    why?

    1

Rules

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Market opened Jan 7, 2026, 8:29 PM · Last updated Sep 18, 2026, 12:14 PM

Market data

24h volume

$824

1 week volume

$20,689

1 month volume

$59,228

1 year volume

$994,491

Spread

0.70%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.001

Competitiveness

82.3%

1h change

1 week change

-0.25%

1 month change

-1.35%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0x1f45664dbc61a1044feaa1fcb773bda82e0a936da8cdb2cf3c06125c0f2a4826
Question ID:
0x1476b588edb5d0ea7416d325da95d928bf7fd08f93589c53acd637e0d12af76b

Frequently asked questions

What is the "Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

If the Doge-1 12U Lunar Cube satellite successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the satellite with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 3.5%, No at 96.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$994,486 in total volume, with $824 in the last 24 hours and $58,456 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Jan 7, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.