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NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Active · Ends Jan 1, 2027

No probability

85.5%

24h change

+2.00%

Total volume

$3.6M

Liquidity

$53,361

Price history

YesNo
0%25%50%75%100%Oct 26Oct 30Nov 214.5%85.5%

Outcomes

Yes14.5%
No85.5%

Order book

Yes · 50 levels
BidsSize
  1. 14¢20
  2. 13¢455
  3. 12¢1,050
  4. 11¢3,934
  5. 10¢4,979
  6. 9¢7,102
  7. 8¢4,010
  8. 7¢2,796
AsksSize
  1. 15¢303
  2. 16¢4,232
  3. 17¢3,085
  4. 18¢19,400
  5. 19¢158
  6. 20¢520
  7. 21¢105
  8. 22¢305

  • GeorgeKubantsev4d ago

    thx for the free money suckers!

    5

  • realDharma694d ago

    There might be some solvency issues if the apocalypse option is the actual realization.😁

    0

  • Tezcatlipoca8d ago

    We need more markets for next year

    2

  • Daspanai9d ago

    Is it better to apocalypse

    0

  • PowerPicker9d ago

    GG. Shouldn’t have cucked out and sold part of my position to derisk. UMA voters in discord were calling Geran-4s “jets”: it would have been better to just stick with my explanation and hold 100%.

    3

  • 0x116bB6a405b7e6a3A52fF775982363A3DD9113b6-17716441590229d ago

    "Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify." what is this mean

    1

  • Tezcatlipoca9d ago

    Something that can't plausibly be claimed was a wayward munition intended for Ukraine

    0

  • os929d ago

    thats what you get when you copytrade each other haha. take this L

    2

  • johnsic9d ago

    So Russia using drones to blow up civilian ships inside NATO countrys waters and NATO country shooting down those drones with fighter jets doesnt qualify as a military clash? The definitions change in he fly it seems like.

    1

  • CondeDeBelloch7d ago

    Indeed. This is worse than Red Sea piracy.

    0

  • DonationsReceiver9d ago

    military clash is defined like Russia nuking Paris

    3

  • paprika24129d ago

    if this taking down drones would count we would have HUGE potential of market manipulation takes one operator to fly rouge and collect the money here..

    0

  • DonationsReceiver9d ago

    Lol, no holders are insane

    0

  • 2KTrade9d ago

    After repeatedly spamming "thanks for the donation" to No holders, GollumGekko has flown to Russia himself to strike Romania..... or Ukraine. We will never know.

    8

  • Belgaron9d ago

    We did it !!!!

    3

  • nottrito10d ago

    gg fricking ez

    1

  • DonationsReceiver10d ago

    I hope they invade Poland in one week

    0

  • shineforever10d ago

    First they bet against you. Then they call you schizo. Then they copy trade you. Then they hate you as hard as they can - Tetrose

    2

  • 0x6120f232678c5a79f2af057b34100f2B5c3BB06a-176783258469710d ago

    I doubled my bet on this roller coaster, thanks.

    2

  • DiaMat10d ago

    Multiplied by ten

    1

  • IosifStalin10d ago

    I was scared but i buy more no

    1

  • DiaMat10d ago

    Great site to take money from people who doesn't read 😎

    7

  • yen4u10d ago

    obv clarif, i should've gone harder, rip

    3

  • DonationsReceiver10d ago

    why you believe it's obv? really curious, the wording is much softer than invasion

    1

  • Car10d ago

    scam site

    4

  • Boroda20510d ago

    🤡

    0

  • IosifStalin10d ago

    Lol thx 4 they money

    2

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market opened Jan 2, 2026, 9:55 PM · Last updated Nov 2, 2026, 10:16 PM

Market data

24h volume

$40,588

1 week volume

$131,435

1 month volume

$1.2M

1 year volume

$3.6M

Spread

1.00%

Min order

5

Tick size

0.01

Competitiveness

88.8%

1h change

+0.50%

1 week change

-1.00%

1 month change

-7.00%

Negative risk

No

Condition ID:
0xf2bf04609e7458df56c9bb4b1e051286dea11da1c944bbc1dafbcc6b76904e52
Question ID:
0x8c515fc217d6f969966032b7a3a54ccd8f414b6d177f7f3ae8e14a76cc4e9fe5

Frequently asked questions

What is the "NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?" prediction market?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between January 2, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

What are the current odds?

Yes at 14.5%, No at 85.5% Odds move with trading and refresh as the market updates.

How much trading activity has this market generated?

$3.6M in total volume, with $40,588 in the last 24 hours and $53,361 of liquidity currently available.

When does this market close?

Trading runs until Jan 1, 2027. The market opened on Jan 13, 2026.

How do I trade this market?

Holdytic is a read-only view of Polymarket data. Use the “Trade on Polymarket” link to place an order on Polymarket itself, where you can connect a wallet and fund a position.

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